This started as a Random Thoughts contribution, but my verbosity got the best of me on the first item, so its it’s a Random Thought post. The good thing is I have a couple of items to turn in a true Random Thoughts contribution. For certain values of the word good – hey ya gets what ya pay for, at least you have a clean page to snark. Skip to the End if you desire musical accompaniment.
A group at the Cleveland Clinic recently published a paper purporting to show that, in 2024-2025, the seasonal flu shot exhibited a negative efficacy of 26%. In other words, getting the flu shot increased your chances of getting the flu. Now, the flu shot is generally known to be of low efficacy, barely besting placebo in general, but I think this is the first study showing negative efficacy, even if N of 1 anecdotes have hinted at that.
Some of you have referenced/recommended William Briggs – he took a look at the study here and, while identifying what he thought are a few statistical problems vis-a-vis normalizations and sampling bias, seems to agree that the numbers show at best no impact and probably a weak negative efficacy. I haven’t seen any analyses that call the general result into serious question.
My first thought when I heard about the study wasn’t “is it statistically sound?” (though maybe it should have been), but rather “Isn’t Cleveland Clinic the same outfit that found that repeated COVID-19 shots resulted in increased incidence of COVID?” Turns out that yes, it’s the same group.
Both studies were carried out on employees of the clinic system, roughly 50000. My second thought was, what’s the overlap in non-inoculated vs inoculated employees across the two studies? In the COVID study, there were ~6000 employees with 0 doses and ~45000 with 1 or more, almost all in the 2-3 dose regime. In the flu study, there were ~9500 in the non-inoculated group and ~44000 who got the shot. Now Cleveland Clinic requires employees to get both the COVID shot and the flu shot. Given that not getting either shot requires filing for a medical or religious exemption and the numbers in each cohort are similar, what is the likelihood that there is significant overlap between the refusenik groups, i.e. people who filed for exemptions from the COVID shot are the same people who got exemptions from the flu shot, so the non-inoculated groups in both studies are largely the same people? Of course there’s significant turn-over in the health care industry and it looks like Cleveland clinic employment may have increased (studies were separated by a couple of years). However, exclusion criteria seem to be the same and censoring only occurred when a participant was no longer employed. It seems like a reasonable hypothesis that there was, if not perfect, at least significant, overlap between the inoculated groups in both studies; I had no luck finding that information.
To me, if true, that raises the immediate question – what if the flu shot study has very little to do with actual flu shot efficacy? It is beginning to be noticed that the COVID shots may have an immune-suppressant effect. Relatively early on the shift from IgG2,3 to IgG4 with repeated COVID shots was noted, largely after the 2nd dose and increasing with more doses. IgG4 acts as an immune-suppressant, generally a response to allergens. It turns down the immune response so as not to damage the body as a response to a more or less long term/chronic antigen. IgG2 and 3, on the other hand, have a ‘killer’ response – they are part of the immune systems way of destroying foreign and/or infected cells. Turn them down and turn up IgG4 and you are suppressing your immune systems ability to fight pathogens. So what if having had the COVID shots means you have a weakened immune system either through IgG4 or other mechanisms? In that situation, if you study that cohort later on with respect to another antigen, you may well see higher susceptibility to infection regardless of whether the same cohort was inoculated against the new antigen, especially if the effectiveness of the inoculation against the new antigen has, historically, been minimal. In this scenario, the group without flu vaccines is roughly the same group that didn’t get the COVID shot – they have a more robust immune system and are thus less susceptible to flu infections, probably something like the ‘normal’ rate. The group that got the flu shots strongly overlaps with the group that got the COVID shots and is thus more susceptible to flu infections, enough so to overwhelm any potential (weak in general) effectiveness of the flu shot.
Without knowing the relative overlap between the groups in these two studies, it’s sort of impossible to say. To even get to the point of questioning correlation and causation, and eliminating confounders, one would have to do a cross correlation between the data sets and break out the infection rates in a more granular fashion, e.g. correlate flu rates against number of COVID shots, especially for 3 or more shots where the IgG2,3 suppression really manifests strongly. Though one might start getting into small numbers there and have less ability to distinguish impacts, it would be an interesting inquiry.
For my part, I have my biases and I try to account for them or at least be aware of them; but to me there is very strong evidence that the COVID shots are not good for – and were known to be so from the beginning. Could it be that I only see evidence that supports my preconceptions, or did the evidence (and weighting it) drive me to the ‘pre’-conceptions? I may never know, but for now, I know where I stand. A body fed with venom, indeed.
The whole mRNA side effects mess, separate from efficacy, made me go “Would I be better off just taking a syringe full of the disease?” Not even a diminished form, I’d have better chances being injected with covid or influenza than some of the so-called vaccines out there for either.
In the case of vaccinations, I used to be a true believer, not even questioning the efficacy or potential ill effects – until they blitzed out a shot for a virus family for which there had never been an effective vaccine, whose risk profile was minimal for any helathy adult, and on a timetable that would make testing impossible. Then the perfectly healthy people started dropping dead, and amyloid clots started showing up in their corpses, and I went “that just ain’t right.” That was before they decided that it was such a good thing that it needed to be manditory, and you weren’t allowed to question it, let alone sue for injuries.
In the case of vaccinations, I used to be a true believer, not even questioning the efficacy or potential ill effects
Not sure I’d say true believer, but yes, didn’t really question it, it was just sort of a background truth, and I’d be more likely than not to dismiss someone who questioned them as a nutter. After the food pyramid crap and especially the COVID hysteria, no more.
And as soon as you start looking, there’s ample evidence that vaccines are not savior they are hyped as. Useful in some cases, sure. Dosed at the rate and number they are in newborns and children? Hell no. I’ve also seen no convincing explanation of plots of disease incidence vs time with vaccine introduction super-posed. A continuous decrease in incidence from well before the vaccine to well after with nary a blip in the trend (or a very small one) at the point of vaccine introduction.
Not to say those can’t be manipulated as well (though it’s pretty straightforward) and may miss some subtleties outside the population level, but sometimes 2+2=4 has more explanatory value than a multi-dimensional integral equation that can obfuscate and hide core issues under a veil of complexity.
Dosed at the rate and number they are in newborns and children?
I forgot to add (see, this is how a random thoughts bullet point turns into an article. Diarrhea of mouth – wonder if there’s a shot for that?), it seems part and parcel of the inherent human trait to see in binary. One vaccine good, more must be better. No tradeoffs/risk-reward assessment. No diminishing returns. Couple that with an incentive structure to medicalize everything and we’re in the boat we find ourselves.
Project Warp Speed!
it seems part and parcel of the inherent human trait to see in binary
But what about gender?
Thanks interesting read and thanks for the blog pointer.
“One vaccine good, more must be better.” That’s something that bothers me. Not all vaccines are effective. But there’s a huge incentive to label something a vaccine and shortcut thinking about whether it is worthwhile.
If you were under 30 and in good health, probably.
I think the whole mRNA platform is a solution looking for a problem, and a ‘solution’ that likely causes more problems than it might solve. It was largely developed as a means to deliver treatment to cancer cells in a directed fashion but never really worked out. But there was still a lot of sunk costs in the technology development; how to we recover that investment? And in a very superficial way, the concept can be sold somewhat reasonably as a quick way to turn around treatment for new pathogens as a ‘vaccine’ package.
But from the potential toxicity of the lipid-nano-particle delivery system, to the widespread biodistribution inherent in the delivery system (it was NEVER going to just stay in your arm folks….), to turning your cells into manufacturers of a pathogen (or at least expressing proteins of a pathogen) which makes dosing completely impossible. That later coupled with the with biodistribution is a recipe for auto-immune and destroying cells that are not really amenable to being destroyed.
Worse, in the case of the COVID shots, the choose the cyto-toxic spike protein. WTF were they thinking? Distribute a treatment to essentially every cell in the body turning them into manufacturers of said toxin meaning you have no control over the dose of the poison (unlike say chemo therapy where you actually contorl the dose of the toxin), prompting the body to attack, potentially, every cell-type in your body, for an unknown length of time and expressing a cyto-toxic protein. Brilliant.
Blah blah, blah-blah blah. Blah? B-b-b-b-b-lah! Blah blah blah blah. BLAH!
Channeling Charlie Brown’s teacher?
Channeling Alex Lifeson’s Rock & Roll Hall of Fame induction speech
Offspring fan?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Abrn8aVQ76Q
As a little kid it always annoyed me no end that I couldn’t understand the teacher. Why couldn’t they get her to speak clearly?
I was too young to understand that was the point.
Years ago I read something about how Peanuts and Calvin and Hobbes were both centered on the same form of extistensialism, but differed in the artists approach to the establishment. And a lot of that had to do with Schultz and WWII.
Wish I could find that article again.
When I was in the 8th grade the shop teacher, Mr Nichols, was reading a Pogo comic. Of course I had to laugh and tease him about the “kid’s literature”. It wasn’t ’til I was about the 30-35 that I began to understand Pogo.
Zwak, is it THIS article?
https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1999-dec-21-cl-45937-story.html
I suspect the correlation between COVID vaxxed people and people with long-covid is 100%.
Glad I avoided the whole thing.
It is amazing to me that there are still places like Cleveland Clinic and Prisma Health that are requiring employees get vaccines that they know are terrible for you.
From the NIH:
vaccines reduce the risk of severe COVID-19 (including reinfections)
Only if you look at the vaccine-adjacent genetic treatment in the early stages tailored to the initial circulating variant – and even that conclusion is clouded by testing biases and study manipulation, I would not be surprised if there was never any efficacy of the shot. Otherwise, past 4 months or so from the roll-out, that’s just a flat out lie.
I read the book The Great Influenza several months ago, and it mentioned that some people had what I’d call Long Flu. The book was written well before Covid, so it’s not poisoned by any bias from current events (not current current events anyway). Long recoveries have probably been a feature of all kinds of sicknesses for some people.
Locally, between the Cleveland Clinic, University Hospitals, and MetroHealth, it’s nigh impossible to live in the area without knowing several people who work at one of them. It does not provide the aura of prestige that they think it does.
Tulsi declassifies the Biden Administration’s Strategic Implementation Plan for Countering Domestic Terrorism.
Didn’t read it, but from comments I’ve seen, it’s basically censorship and gun control in the guise of combatting domestic terrorism. Not at all surprising, but at least we have the receipts now. https://x.com/DNIGabbard/status/1912647067807232372
Therefore, it is strongly recommended that all people, even those with a history of COVID-19, receive vaccines to protect themselves against this fatal viral infection.
Bring out your dead.
Bring back business-as-usual
President Donald Trump’s significant policy changes, including on tariffs, are unlike anything seen in modern history, putting the Federal Reserve in uncharted waters, Chair Jerome Powell said Wednesday.
“These are very fundamental policy changes,” Powell said at an event hosted by the Economic Club of Chicago. “There isn’t a modern experience of how to think about this.”
Powell said “the level of the tariff increases announced so far is significantly larger than anticipated” and that the lingering uncertainty around tariffs could inflict lasting economic damage. With Trump’s tariffs putting the economy on a path toward weaker growth, higher unemployment and faster inflation — all at the same time — the Fed is also facing a situation it hasn’t dealt with in about half a century.
“We may find ourselves in the challenging scenario in which our dual-mandate goals are in tension,” Powell said.
Nobody said unwinding the cozy globalist consensus was going to be easy, Federal Reserve Barbie.
At the risk of sounding overall Cato here, I’m going to throw it out there that I don’t think “globalism” is bad.
I’m ok with freeer movement of people and the kind of trade between countries that makes global conflict less likely.
…
What I’m REALLY against is: A global government to manufacture and control a center-left world order.
Past experience indicates that trade does not reduce the chance of war. Once one side thinks it can benefit from taking over their partner by force and not paying so much for X, they will attack.
“We may find ourselves in the challenging scenario in which our dual-mandate goals are in tension,” Powell said.
The dual mandate of maximum employment and stable currency is generally in tension.
I’m glad my doctor doesn’t push COVID vaccination. I did get my tetanus booster.
Shouldn’t a done that. Now they can track you.
I thought it was COVID that had 5G communications.
I got my tetanus booster on Tuesday. My shoulder really hurts now.
I am feeling it today. Fortunately it is only once a decade.
…once a decade…
Think I’ll skip it, probably wouldn’t get my money’s worth.
I just spent a half-hour crawling into the most inaccessable portion of my house: the inner chamber of the back porch crawl space. I need to check/change the water line that feeds the ice maker on the fridge, which is having issues. Now, due to having breathed so much dust, I am coughing up black chunks worse than any smoking gave me.
Of course, nothing was wrong with the line, but if I hadn’t checked I would be second guessing that as the problem forever.
Hold on. We got a vaccine for that.
^^
lol
Crawl suit and N95 if not a half mask. Nasty shit underneath and up above.
I was going to recommend something similar.
At least you didn’t encounter something aggressively undfriendly while under there.
Or discover animals have been using the space as a toilet.
Ray of Sunshine
https://x.com/Crazymoments01/status/1912410182031753252
No gangster wears Angels gear. Might as well be Mickey ears.
It’s hard to believe RFK isn’t a kook, when he does things like say we’ll know the cause of autism in 5 months.
Unless of course autism is a CIA project.
This is akin to the Ukraine war being over in 2 weeks. Better to under promise and over deliver.
Or two weeks to end the spread.
Every autistic person has been playing us.
At the risk of sounding overall Cato here, I’m going to throw it out there that I don’t think “globalism” is bad.
Neither do I, to be honest. But- as much as I hate the tinfoil-hattery surrounding it, I don’t think the Davos model is the one we want.
Hollowing out the goods-producing base of the economy was not a good long term strategy. The “service economy” some people are so proud of has a lot more hairdressers and delivery boys than software designers.
IMO a service-based economy is necessarily parasitic on production-based economies because it doesn’t produce anything. All it does is shuffle money from various pockets to other pockets.
Financialization is even worse since it’s primarily based on speculation, not production.
I think steel plants are parasites living off miners and grocery stores are parasites living off farmers.
Janitors are the worst. They live off everyone else. It’s time they make their own mess.
Not everyone can make a living on OnlyFans.
Am I the only one who thinks Giorgia Meloni is hot?
Meloni
Is that plural for “melon”?
You are not alone.
The CEO of my company met her several months ago and he was completely smitten. It was almost embarrassing.
I have no doubt I would react in the same way if I ever met her. She is quite the charmer.
Apropos
She’s hot in a short and cute way. I’d like her to force me to sit at the dinner table until I finish my pasta all the while berating me in Italian but, hey, that’s just me.
Even with free trade, armies will cross borders as long as powerful people believe they are justified in hitting others and taking their stuff.
Some exotic derp turned up: Chinese fad course claims students can speed read books while blindfolded
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZZzhESKHwJg
skip to 7:23 mark
It’s that touch of Far East mysticism that makes it amusing for me. It’s like the fad of learning by listening to tapes while asleep.
I don’t have time to dig deep right now so I will leave this: The Cootiebug scam destroyed my confidence in the vaccine game in general. They shit on their credibility and considering what is on the line I do not trust them and there is nothing they can say or do to win it back. They were entrusted with lives and abused that trust terribly costing people’s lives. They even went so far as to force people under threat to take a vaccine that killed them. The only reason they got away with it is because had people known the danger the attempt to coerce it would hav resulted in widespread violent resistance.
People should go to prison for what they did, but they wont.