Legislators in both red and blue states are considering redistricting to increase the representation of their respective parties in the U.S. House. But which redistricting efforts are unfair, and how might one determine that?
A simple approach would be to say that the ratio of Republican to Democrat Representatives should be just the ratio of R to D registered voters. However, independent and third-party voters vary from less than 10% to nearly 40%, which makes this kind of approach problematic. One could look at the total number of votes in Representative races in each state, but close to 9% of such races are uncontested, which would tend to distort the results. While far from perfect, I used the presidential votes in each state as a proxy for the basic popularity of each party.
Once it’s decided to use the presidential votes, one could then say the number of Representatives a party gets in a state should be proportional to the fraction of votes the top of the ticket gets in that state. But this is not realistic, especially in extreme cases; for example, if a party has only 5% of the voters, barring a very unusual geographic distribution of voters, it would most likely take some egregious gerrymandering to arrange to have that party get even one Representative. So how can we assign what a fair number of Representatives is given a certain fraction of votes?
My approach is to plot the fraction of R Representatives in the current Congress in a given state versus the fraction of R votes in the 2024 presidential election for that state. (Since the number of third-party votes is small, the results for the Democratic party would follow directly.) Hopefully, a pattern will develop that shows how a given percentage of the votes might generally translate to an expected fraction of Representatives.
Clustering of R versus D voters might vary from state to state, but if a pattern does emerge, then we might be able to infer which states have a fair distribution of R versus D Representatives and which don’t. Deviations from that pattern might indicate some level of gerrymandering (if intentional) or unintentional unfair districting (if accidental). One can also then evaluate how certain redistricting efforts might be considered as gerrymandering, or, in some cases, perhaps as an elimination of some level of gerrymandering/unfairness that already exists.
The figure below shows the fraction of Representatives the Republican party has by state versus the fraction of 2024 presidential votes, shown as a percentage, received in that state for states with at least four Representatives. Each state is represented by a red dot. States with three or fewer Representatives are not included due to low statistics.
There does appear to be a pattern, albeit with a lot of scatter. One could try to do a linear fit, but a linear fit fails at the extremes, in that you can get results that are either negative or above 100%. Another possibility is the logistic function, which when constrained between 0% and 100% has the form 100%/(1 + exp[a(x-x0)]), where a and x0 are parameters to be varied to find the best fit. The parameter x0 is the value of x where the fraction should be 50%, while a determines how fast the function approaches 0% and 100% as x deviates from x0. The best fit is shown by the green dots. In fact, the logistic function does give a better fit to the data than a straight linear fit, indicating that the natural pattern does appear to have a slight curve.
States that lie above the green dots indicate there are more R Representatives than you might typically expect, and below them that there are fewer, whether the deviations are purposeful gerrymandering, unintentional unfairness, or perhaps even an unusual distribution of party voters that’s different from other states.
The states that are far enough above the green dots to suggest (by rounding to the nearest integer) there should be more R Representatives in that state are TX (+2), IL (+2), NJ (+1), MA (+1), AL (+1), LA (+1), CT (+1), and NV (+1), for a total of 10 more. The states below the green dots maybe should have less R Representatives: GA(-2), NC (-2), CO (-2), WI (-2), FL (-1), PA (-1), VA (-1), AZ(-1), SC (-1), IA (-1), and UT (-1), for a total of 16 less. So the net result would have been a decrease of 6 R seats, which would have flipped the current House to Dem control. Some particular examples:
Texas: the redistricting here might add 5 R seats, which would change a deficit of 2 to 3 too many.
California: By the standards here, it is already pretty fair, and the attempt to add 5 seats there would add 5 too many D seats..
Virginia: the recent plan that would effectively have added 4 D seats, struck down by the Virginia Supreme Court, would have overcorrected for the current “extra” R seat.
Florida: already favoring R’s a little bit, the recently drawn new map with 4 more R seats would make it more so.
Ohio: redistricting here could add 2 R seats, even though the current R/D split is fair by this analysis.
Louisiana: the recent attempt to keep 2 black (effectively D) seats, struck down by the U.S. Supreme Court, would result in one less R seat than the green dots suggest.
Utah: the Utah Supreme Court struck down the current map as an unlawful partisan gerrymander; this analysis also indicates an unfair excess of one R seat.
North Carolina: already favoring R’s, the recently enacted change would add another R seat.
Missouri and Tennessee: laws passed in these states change their ratios from basically fair to favoring R’s by one seat.
Iowa: there is no redistricting here, but currently all 4 seats are R. In the past there has often been at least one D seat, and the 2026 elections might be more competitive, potentially bringing Iowa in line with this analysis.
Massachusetts and Connecticut: Both should have one R seat by this analysis, instead of none, but a redistricting to correct this seems unlikely, to say the least.
Finally, by comparison, a linear fit to the data would add 17 R seats in some states and 16 D seats in others. One additional, extra R seat each would come from CA, NY, IL, NJ, AL, KY, and OR. An extra D seat would come from MD, but CO would only get one more, not two.
Clearly a different metric to gauge R and D support could give different results, but I think this gives some indication of possible unfairness in current and future Representative maps, and puts current redistricting efforts in perspective.
Massachusetts and Connecticut: Both should have one R seat by this analysis, instead of none, but a redistricting to correct this seems unlikely, to say the least.
CT used to have a pretty strong Republican machine which imploded.
I’m ignorant of much, including New England. But that screams of ‘rich folk who have the sense to not live in the big cities cuz they happen to *like* their own money.’ (I’m probably not too far off.)
I wonder what changed that. (Not too much.) It started long before the current waves of diverse migrants started including themselves into your business and affairs.
Income tax started the implosion. CT never had one, and then got one in the early 90s in an attempt to plug a budget deficit.
In other New England US House trivia:
NH’s districts were drawn by Republicans. Both seats are held by Democrats. For at least ten, fifteen years, Republicans have run shit candidates at the Federal level. However, Republicans have, except for 2018-2020 when the Legislature and Executive Council were in Democrat hands, controlled the state government for quite a while.
Maine gives two electoral college votes for the statewide vote and one for each Congressional district. Trump won one of the Congressional districts (CD-2 I think) and a Democrat won that House seat. The Republican candidate for US House for that district was garbage.
Same in OR, mostly. I’d say it’s the chameleon effect. Most politicians and wannabe politicians aren’t true believers. They go wherever they can win elections and stroke that powerlust.
Indiana’s on board with taking IL counties that want to be away from Chicago and Cook County. I haven’t followed this as closely as I should’ve. It passed the IN Senate and House, but no way in hell IL will do such. Chicago, NYC, LA, maybe a couple more, ‘should’ be city-states. (At present (and forever?), the way that would be implemented would be terrible for the American Republic.)
https://wgntv.com/news/indiana/indiana-senate-bill-annex-illinois-counties/
All of this silliness goes away if the nation does the needful and increases the number of districts by about 25x.
Sorry, Rhy, but by asking for the needful, you are now subject to involuntary euthenasia.
We have to erase that linguistic cancer.
I will be disagreeing.
/head-wobble
Nope. Just turn it into an even larger tub of shit with smaller turds.
Yes, each small turd having far less power is one of the highlights.
Deep State sez “excellent”.
Sounds like getting rid of States. I want more powerful states.
If Washington happened to pretend to follow its constitutional powers like it’s ‘sposed to, this whole conversation would be moot. I’m not sure what local governments actually *do,* that actually can get changed at the local level. Certain taxes, I s’pose. Counties, cities seem like individual factories where federal stuff gets ‘done.’
I’m well aware of my own ignorance and save myself and (property-owning folk) from my vote’s ‘influence.’ (Eh. I didn’t federally vote in ’20 or ’24, either.)
The 17th Amendment got rid of states, for all practical purposes.
*More Power = More freedom from Feds. States as factories, with their (non-17th) senators that actually reflect state differences.
JINX! 12345678910! You owe me a coke.
(I’d prefer the good kind.)
The 17th amendment got rid the these United States.
The republic died in 1913.
The stupid party got rid of Massie.
We need another couple hundred guys like him. Not one fewer.
The party of Lindsay Graham and Mike Johnson.
Now that Massie is gone, the Trump agenda will steamroll to victory. Excuse me while I go fill my $6/gal gas.
If your gas is $6/gallon, that’s your fault for wherever you live.*
*Not meant as a defense of currently high gas prices.
Yep, will steamroll to a 20 seat Dem majority in November.
Ill take that bet creech. I think Rs will lose seats but wont be a wipe out.
If the Dems were much more center, Id agree. The old adage of stay home to punish from yesterday meant small changes in governance.
Today? Means basically a whole new type of government. I see a swap along same spread we see today between the two.
I’m with OBE.
Massie has been retarded for a while now. Don’t be a doomer, 3🚪
All that I have seen him do is be the only guy even trying to follow the constitution.
On the local level one district over we have a real chance of getting rid of the biggest Democrat that’s ran in northern Idaho on the Republican ticket for a long time.
Of course funded by southern Idaho Agg interests. They love their illegal alien labor.
Yeah, I’ve seen many say he’s been goofy for a while now. Uh. I don’t see much from or about him anymore, but when I did, he was the only ‘loud’ voice for constitutional principles. He was popular here until some switch flipped, apparently.
I hear it’s bout Israel /Iran. *shrug* I’m very displeased about the Iran affair. But I don’t know of any domestic thing going on, other than he pissed Trump off, likely over the thing I don’t know about.
Crystal.
Evan. I heard his opponent talk today and it was just a bad southern swindle, I’m a man of the land farmer, just came in from farming and got some sweet tea to sit on the porch and talk to the big city radio guy, Massie if for transing the kids and funded by Soros. If the voters bought that they deserve to get it long and hard.
Yay we get a bootlicker. I will be a downer. Massie had misteps that other politicans get to brush off cause thet tow the lion.
Of course, Massie got caught up with Epstien rather than representing. Im not sure any ladies are from or live in his district. Hell, the people here just wanted accountability not the circus given and he just couldn’t see it was a losing battle.
The Epstein thing is dumb across the board.
The 180° reverse, lying, and foot dragging by Trump and company on Epstein isn’t being done for no reason. Nothing will happen, but there’s something there. Or the deep state is doing their damnedest to make it appear so.
I guess Ro Khanna’s “good friend” will be so missed …
“Massie says he called Gallerin to concede. But says it “took a while to find Ed Gallrein in Tel Aviv” – class all the way out.
So much this. The Ilhan Omar and Code Pink endorsements were also a bad look.
So since my treasonous body likes to remind me daily of my actual age, today I went to my VA hospital to get fitted for….hearing aids.
While I was away, the “new” Hyundai Genesis R-spec was at the shop getting looked over since I noticed a whine from the rear end on the highway. Not under power but when I let off.
Mechanic confirmed the diff is shot.
I’ve had better starts to a week.
Used ones available?
Generally not hard to swap.
I just got the news so I haven’t started scrounging around. We have a shop here that will rebuild your diff, and they’re really good. An estimate from them is likely my 1st stop. If I was 20 years younger with a proper garage? Id do it myself.
I bought all the tools to set up a gear set over a decade ago.
Regearing was going to be over $700. The tools were about $450.
They have dust on them now but paid for themselves on the one job. Not something I would be willing to learn on on a modern car though.
A used diff is likely to be the ticket.
I have hearing aids (VA) but don’t wear them. I can’t tell any difference in my hearing, other than with the hearing aids I can hear myself chew.
I’ve had my hearing aids for about 8 months now.
I’m guessing you have noticed a difference and that’s good, of course.
I won’t give up my glasses though.
Dont give up your glasses. Then you’ll never hear anything. Its medical science.
Yes. The difference as been huge.
I am a fan of my VA provided hearing aids. While they don’t have all the bells and whistles of the top of the line they work fine.
Suffering under either/both party/ies is still suffering.
The debt is going to destroy any prospect of prosperity, neither party dares to address it because it is political suicide. A strong man will arise and it won’t be in the mold of Trump.
There is no good solution, it’s like choosing the fastest horse on the merry-go-round. Redistricting won’t change a thing.
“It’s like choosing the fastest horse on the merry-go-round.”
‘I know! It’s that one!’ <– (Thoroughly convinced voters, in all human history.)
Choose the mermaid or the unicorn.
I think I only remember horses and modes of transportation on my merry-go-rounds.
*whispers* The mermaid is always my unicorn…
The only good play is NOT to play the game.
*subscribes to Fourscore’s newsletter
Who is it that always says STIJLTHL ?
Person found dancing in road with box turtle arrested on drug charges
Holding a turtle while dancing… or was the turtle dancing as well? Go ninja go ninja go ?
I hate to do this.
But since you said Ninja
No doubt he did a [lowers sunglasses]…. box step.
Cool As Ice is a fun, good bad flick. Was a home MST3K flick growing up. Wasn’t too easy to find, IIRC.
I remember reading somewhere that Michael Gross was cast in that based on his work in “Family Ties” with Scott Valentine as Mallory’s boyfriend Nick and they basically just told him to react the exact same way to Vanilla Ice.
So to get the Genesis R-Spec™ to the shop, and Jugsy (on probationary status) is working, I took advantage of my AmEx credits and Uber’d back and forth to the shop.
Each trip (~$15) I tossed the driver a $20 and said “put some gas in your tank.”
Trump, in his greasy, salesman, bloviating BS says he’ll suspend federal gas tax. I dont know if he can do it by EO or it takes Congress. But locally, our neighbors in Kentucky and Indiana have suspended state fuel tax (temporarily). DeWine? Our dog-puke statist prick that couldnt even handle the job of AG?
“Nope-we need that money for infrastructure.”
Fuck him and his cunt daughter. And Amy Acton too, while Im at it.
Federal gas tax should not exist.
Eliminate it and the federal DOT. It’s not the feds business.
It’s all leverage and grift.
21 year old drinking age, funneling money to stupid pet projects like roundabouts (thanks Obama) airport lobbies and rail.
Yeah- when they leveraged (not strong armed) states into doing the 21 year old drinking age to get highway funds and a 65 mph speed limit.
Now my kid that’s 19 cant (legally) buy alcohol or anything with nicotine. But if he enlists he can buy smokes. Which the same government says is bad for you.
Ahem, 55mph speed limit first.
Massie might be my favorite *spits* politician. I think ALL politicians are evil.
That he is expected to lose hurts.
Just look at what the uniparty is doing.
Massie really voted for Trump’s policies at about the same clip that Fetterman votes for Schumer’s policies and they are making sure we understand the consequences of not falling into line.
In line is either sucking Trump’s cock or taking money from AIPAC, take your pick.
“taking money from AIPAC” Really?
How about taking money from IRANPAC?
But that’s different Swiss. Those people want what’s best for us.
A pox on both their houses and those carrying water for any foreign interests.
So I count 5 distinct given names there giving to Massie with the surname Mahmoud. They gave a total of $47.5k to Massie. That doesn’t look like evidence to me, that looks like social media crap.
Trump is a dumbass.
But that guy was a Seal. He’s a HeroTM!
Brightside is Massie has time for his quite quick rebound wife now.
Little over a year.
He’s no Trump, he could have moved on before she died.
Highest expenditure for any House or Senate race in history. For a fella from Kentucky, of all states. Don’t get me wrong, I have a soft space in my heart for Kentucky. I like Tom Massie. But come on.
Fecken Joos [looks directly a Glib Joos] can fuck right off. I don’t want more government, I want less.
/am I a ZeroHenger, now?
Sounds like you’re getting there. Massie raised all of $310,000 in all of Kentucky. That sounds like tepid, at best local support. Take a look at where the millions he raised came from.
Oh, and it’s neither the most expensive House or Senate race in history. It’s the most expensive primary. But you know how we Jews are always counting money.
Britain’s still pushing it: “It may not always feel like it, but Britons are going to have to get used to living in a hot country.
Temperatures are already 1.4C above the historic norm, and heading for a 2C rise in the next two decades.
—
(And what can’t it blame? And a lovely ‘women and edu hardest hit bit)
—
Without strong preventive action, a hotter Britain will also be a far more unequal country. Extreme weather will affect people on lower incomes more than those with the means to adapt.
=======
Pregnant women are among the most vulnerable to high temperatures, a Wellcome study published this week showed. Without the means to cool their homes, women could be at higher risk of pre-term birth, still birth, congenital anomalies and obstetric complications.
Schools are another factor. One study quoted by the CCC found students were more likely to fail an examination if taken at an outside temperature of 32C rather than at 22C.”
It just keeps getting more specifically dumb:
“Temperatures at home matter too – pupils unable to sleep as “tropical nights”, where the temperature does not fall below 20C, will become more common.” —-
“Retail prices for staples have already surged owing to the impacts of the climate crisis on crops and yields : climate impacts have added about £360 to the average annual food bill, according to the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit, and a 50% rise in prices is forecast by this November, compared with 2021.”
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2026/may/20/britain-must-think-like-a-hot-country-otherwise-inequalities-will-only-grow
It’s kinda fun, actually. ‘Poor folk most affected by flooding’ is my favorite. Here’s an honest, sincere question: When did they stop teaching kids about the “Boy who cried wolf?” and why it’s bad if ya do it all the time? (Replace “boy” with syllables of the day)That’s a pretty damn good, universally good thing to teach kids.
Sorry about length. Was fun cuz this was below in the Guardian. Must constantly kick on nuclear to show how serious they are.
—-
“The cost of the government’s £38bn nuclear plant in Suffolk is subject to “significant uncertainty” and may outweigh the benefits for UK households until at least 2064, according to the government’s spending watchdog.
The National Audit Office (NAO) has warned that although the potential benefits of the Sizewell C nuclear plant are considerable, they remain uncertain. The risks, however, are “immediate, substantial and borne by the public.”‘
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/may/20/spending-watchdog-warns-38bn-cost-of-sizewell-c-nuclear-plant-is-risky
If I am to believe that article it is hard for women to reproduce when it is hot out. That explains why India, and most of the continent of Africa are hell holes with only scattered outposts of humanity.
Frickin idjiots.
Good news, the dominant Britons will have a climate resembling the one their ancestors left.
Average temps there are low.
Hotter for that cold wet island would be a good thing.
In too local news, the Califucktards finally tipped California on the Deschutes at the county level to far left. Yay.
In better too too local news, all of the tax measures are failing. State gas tax, fire district’s empire building, even 4H. Fuck the farm animals.
4H is such a scam.
It’s government bloat at its finest.
Unfortunately the R nominee for Governor is an establishment party hack and career politician. She’ll lose against the wildly unpopular* current governor.
*wildly unpopular when evaluated by herself, blue no matter who voters will still pull the lever for her over any R candidate no matter how far left
“ tipped California on the Deschutes at the county level”
I know where Deschutes county is. It should be split between Oregon and Greater Idaho.
The rest of that you got me guessing.
My nickname for that area. It’s Deschutes County that folded. Just the latest jurisdiction swing as the central Oregon population has exploded thanks to in migration, both legal and illegal.
Thirty years ago, the population was 1/3 of what it is now. Or less, last census was six years ago.
Massie was backed by Ro Khanna, Cenk Uygur, Fuentes, MTG, Omar, AOC, Tucker, Ana Kasparian, and “American Reich” podcast bros – good fucking riddance.
His classless exit into Podcastistan will show his true colors, just like his shitty remarks on the way out. Whatever broke his brain when his first wife died, left a really different man.
Don’t forget Mango-Ward! Endorsed in NYT. Good riddance!
I’m genuinely curious to know what changed him.
What caused Trump to become a warmonger?
I didnt see a change.
Why do other people see one?
Trump, becoming an old physically powerless man.
It’s what narcissistic personalities do when they become feeble. They lash out and break things. If they can’t take it with them, their families aren’t going to get a dime.