“P-Hacking” is the practice when you’ve collected a lot of data, and then try to correlate them in all possible ways, relying on random chance to prove something “statistically significant.” The interface that my shooting sports uses to report out results (practiscore.com) gives you many ways of slicing and presenting the results which give me all sorts of ways to look at it and find something that makes me look better than I actually am. Knowing this tendency of humans to find patterns in random noise, and to assign meaning to random events makes it extremely frustrating to try and figure out clues to my personal performance and prime areas for improvement in the data. USPSA provides additional situations to find meaning since there is a ranking meaning where you were when all the competitors are ranked best to worst, but also a score based on how well you are compared to the person who did the best, and those tow stats are not the same (though they are usually correlated). So, at last weekend’s match I finished overall in the mid 300s (out of 524) However, there was a stage in which I was (barely) in the 100s! That stage? A stand-and-deliver freestyle-reload-strong hand only stage with targets half-covered with no shoots. Does that mean I’m just so slow on my feet that eliminating movement helps me that much? Well… maybe? On that stage I shot it 42% as well as the best person. I had three stages where I shot over 50% of the winner and all of those had significant amounts of movement. But those stages had large gaps between arrays that let me complete reloads on the run. I like to think I plan stages efficiently, so maybe it comes down to me being better at reloading than the median shooter but not in the same league as good shooters? There is some additional evidence to that in that I was running my NY rig, whereas people I beat regularly/always at local matches went to standard capacity mags and beat me at this match. In any case, I need to have as much skepticism in divining from my match results as I do from my star charts.
But not all scientists are as honest as I am.
The skies this week: an unusually bountiful crop of good signs. Mercury is no longer retrograde! Jupiter dominates! By the end of the month we get two amplifiers to the general “Jupiter-in-Leo” goodness with the moon added on Thursday, then Mercury and Venus teaming up to give heads of households some particularly good times. Can we just take a moment and consider the very lopsided nature of zodiacal sign badassery? You’ve got some mythical beings, of which really only Sagittarius is all that awesome, an inanimate object (Libra) and then animals that are either food or vermin… and then you have Leo. The King of the Beasts (which it why it synergizes so well with Jupiter), who’s only job is to murder and fuck. Why were the ancients inspired to find so much more lameitude during the rest of the stargazing year?
Linking this to get it out of my head.
Leo: 9 of Swords – failure, miscarriage, delay, deception, disappointment, despair.
Virgo: The High Priestess – Fruitfulness, action, initiative, length of days, the unknown, clandestine, difficulty, doubt, ignorance.
Libra: 6 of Cups reversed – Lying nostalgia, experience misleading.
Scorpio: Judgement reversed – Weakness, pusillanimity, simplicity, deliberation, decision, sentence.
Sagittarius: 4 of Cups reversed – Novelty, presage, new instruction.
Capricorn: The Hanged Man reversed – Ambush, selfishness, the crowd, body politic.
Aquarius: 9 of Coins reversed – Roguery, deception, voided project, bad faith.
Pisces: 8 of Cups reversed – Great joy, happiness, feasting.
Aries: 3 of Swords – Grief, despair, heartbreak.
Taurus: 6 of Swords reversed – Declaration, confession, publicity, exposure.
Gemini: 5 of Swords – Degradation, destruction, revocation, infamy, dishonor, loss.
Cancer: The Chariot – Succor, providence, majesty war, triumph, presumption, vengeance, trouble, compulsion, unity of dissimilar factions.
Other people’s probability?
The skies this week: an unusually bountiful crop of good signs.
That is just such a perfect segue.
Grief, despair, heartbreak.
And fuck you and the skies.
“P-Hacking” is the practice when you’ve collected a lot of data, and then try to correlate them in all possible ways, relying on random chance to prove something “statistically significant.”
Should be called “phacking”.
Pee-hacking is coughing and urinating at the same time. With luck and skill a guy can get finished and still have dry pants.
failure, miscarriage, delay, deception, disappointment, despair.
You’re still in my head.
/looks at car he sold but is still in his garage.
Sagittarius: 4 of Cups reversed – Novelty, presage, new instruction.
That sounds like change.
*pulls covers over head*
“ Cancer: The Chariot – Succor, providence, majesty war, triumph, presumption, vengeance, trouble, compulsion, unity of dissimilar factions.”
Vacation sex.
Hopefully you aren’t the guy in the extra chair at the motel.
Fruitfulness, action, initiative, length of days, the unknown, clandestine, difficulty, doubt, ignorance.
I started working on a plumbing project I have been putting off for something like six or seven years…
It would be cool to have water, cold and hot in the shop bathroom. I’ll see if I can finish most of it today. Pex is pretty easy and I got all the hard stuff done and managed to add in an outside faucet on the back of the shop as part of it.
unknown, clandestine, difficulty, doubt, ignorance.
That part is my normal operating procedure.
Not fair
Rather than disputing Beddoes’ suggestion that some people dislike him, Musk accepted the premise before arguing that his audience tells a different story. Pointing to his more than 250 million followers on X, he suggested that public support for him outweighs the criticism he receives and that traditional news organizations face deeper trust issues than many journalists recognize.
The conversation was part of a roughly 90-minute interview covering artificial intelligence, immigration, European politics, free speech, and the future of Western democracies.
Throughout the discussion, Musk repeatedly defended his willingness to comment on issues beyond the United States, arguing that he views the West as interconnected rather than confined by national borders.
He won’t play by their rules and allow them to admonish him for his “controversial” views.
The Euroglobalist telling him he should butt out of EU politics is especially rich.
If they have the audacity to try to regulate him and tax him he has more than a right to simply criticize them.
His responses were great, especially pointing out how many people look down *at you* and the rest of the media for their way of thinking, lines of attack. Few in the clergy understand that, mostly cuz they’re paid not to, but True Belief got them to that tier to begin with, methinks.
@Threedoor: Outstanding point.
We regret the inconvenience
“Relative movement between the engine compartment wiring harness and surrounding components and insufficient abrasion protection on the wiring harness can lead to exposure of wiring. If internal harness circuits are exposed, intermittent shorts can create arcing.”
The heat or spark at the short could ignite other flammable components in the engine bay, resulting in an engine compartment fire. Ford says your only warning signs for this will be smoke in the air vents or a cluster warning message right before flames are visible. The recall docs also state that the flames would be starting from the passenger side of the engine compartment.
Needs more cracked fuel rail and fog of atomized gasoline.
Did they move their old brake pedal switches to the passenger side?
I’m a big fan of the 67-80 something GM bulkhead fitting with a bolt holding both sides together. 95% of the wiring went through the firewall that way and I’ve never seen one that had failed.
WHAT DID YOU CALL ME!?!?
As a sesquipedalian, I come here for the professional wording.
And STEVE SMITH.
Listen, you conceited maggot. you ain’t floppin’ ’round no 18″ cock. Or maybe I hope ya are, the more I think of your boast. No way that damp tube of cardboard’s holdin’ any paper towels. Just a soggy straggler on your thigh.
Sad!
You come for Steve smith?
That’s HIs job.
“Taurus: 6 of Swords reversed – Declaration, confession, publicity, exposure.”
See, that was last week, so I pre-reversed the reversal. Kinda a double-plus positive. Immediate manager and Other New Guy are fully aware of shit that might slow me down. The last few days went well, especially as I’ve got a better way of looking at the SureClose system, but we were also quite slow during that time. This week is supposed to be busier, but I’m far more ‘confident.’ Less stressed.
My one-week’s pay was a profoundly happy love-slap on Friday. (My full one in two weeks’ll be the full Mrs. Wilson tug.)
“But not all scientists are as honest as I am.”
Yeah. Stop saying that part.
ARIES: Nevermind.
A new level of hell here in Iowa. The weather station reads 97 degrees and 86 degree dew point.
Actually 87 degree dew point.
I grew up in Sioux City. I remember those days. I figure Summers in Iowa subtract from the days you owe purgatory.
I’m pleased how summer’s kinda ended in Carmel. It’s 84 out. 62% humidity, 49, the point of (non-Mountainous) dew. We had a really hot week or so in June, and I’m sure we’ll have another in August. *shrug*
“May you live in interesting t̵i̵m̵e̵s̵ weather.” Boring, regular seasonality is underrated. (There was a baby tornado not terribly far away, to be fair. No damage as far as I’ve heard.)
Prepare the Festivus Pole, for I have a grievance to air.
My mom’s other dog has diabetes now and a feeding tube. She’s spent about 15k to keep it alive. That seems crazy to me, but it’s her money. I don’t blame her too much for not wanting to lose another pet so soon after the other two. Still, I suspect I’ll be digging a grave for that dog in the near future.
At dinner, she said “I have diabetes, the other dog had diabetes, this dog has diabetes…” Oh, mom. You’re so close to figuring it out. I don’t think she will because it will force her to admit her mistakes.
She also said, “I’ve seen fat beagles before.” Yes, mom. They’re not supposed to be fat. Kind of like people.
I’m 47 pounds heavier than what the Army says I should weigh. I’m hoping the new job will help me slim down some.
She often says with pride that she’s only 20 pounds heavier than when she got married. That means she was about 140 pounds back then and she’s 4’10. The healthy upper limit for a woman that height is 120 pounds.
Damn that’s a lot of money to prolong the death of a pet.
Re-posting from the Sunday morning potential dead-thread (sorry ’bout this):
So, it’s only about two weeks before the Celebrity Iceland/Solar Eclipse cruise, and I know several people from the Glibosphere were planning on going, but is there actually gonna be anybody on that cruise from the Glibs?
Just curious. The wife and I are ready and waiting, although because of WestJet’s tomfoolery, we’ve had to “backup book” a completely different way of getting to Reykjavik by cruise day. [further venting removed because tedious…]
I can’t, but if I could, an Icelandic cruise is absolutely the one I’d most like to take. I did Bahamas and Alaska in my yute. Never done a cruise as an adult, but I can easily see loving it. Be best for it to be a relationship thing, I imagine. Relationship trips are a lot of fun. I never had the Seinfeldian “relationship disaster” experience. Ours were pretty big adventures.
Hope ya find others along your journey.
I’ll be there, since I helped organize the thing.
I *think* that Annoyed Nomad and his wife will be on the ship as well.
Cost, logistics, and unforeseen circumstances (KK’s pause from work, Hayeksposive’s pause from life) culled most of the other attendees.
pjshpip (at) google if you wanted to compare notes, exchange ideas for things to do, etc.
What’s this weird horizontal bar mid page?
Nm, it went away when I posted. 🤷🏼♂️
“Could not replicate issue. – Closing ticket.”
“Customer states….”
I have zero confidence in a site that logs me out every 5 minutes.
This is why NOAA needs a SWAT team
“NOAA Fisheries’ Office of Law Enforcement is investigating reports of a video on social media that shows an interaction between an individual and sea lion, allegedly in La Jolla Cove,” a spokesperson for the agency said. “In the video, the individual appears to be kicking the sea lion. This is an ongoing investigation, and we cannot provide further details at this time.”
Pestering the wildlife, and to put an end to climate denialism.
There at a lot of sea lions.
Would t be mad if someone shot it.
Sea lions will bite you if you piss them off. And they have pretty impressive teefs.
Just parked next to a Prius still rocking a “Graham Platner” bumper sticker.
Maine, man.
Point to the “It’s ok to punch Nazi’s” bumper sticker on your car as you punch him.