The subject of the minimum wage is another perennial issue in politics, and much ink has been spilt on the topic. One side favors raising the minimum wage as a means of increasing the income (and thereby bettering the livelihood) of the lowest paid workers, while the other opposes on the theory that higher minimum wages will result in higher prices and fewer employment opportunities (thereby worsening the lives of many). A multitude of studies and calculations have been marshaled to favor each side, and as it is a complicated issue there is room for both sides to claim support for their cause. Of course, basic economic doctrine teaches that price controls are counterproductive, which would in theory support the side that opposes minimum wage increases (or even the concept of a minimum wage at all), but there are a number of economists who hold that wages are a special case to which the laws of pricing do not apply. As this series is not dedicated to in-depth dives but only to initial investigations into topics, I do not contend to settle this debate, but merely look at the surface of one aspect of it.
The question of the effect of mandatory wage increases on unemployment seems to me to be the most important facet of this discussion. In my view, any job (and any salary) is better than no job (and no salary), so if increasing the minimum wage has a negative effect on employment that is enough for me to oppose it. Of course, there are many variables that affect employment levels besides merely the minimum wage, and as it is impossible to run economic tests in controlled laboratory conditions it is impossible to break down exactly which variables affect it and to what degree. But still, I feel that general trends can be seen in the data, and since unemployment is relatively low throughout the United States at the present time and there is a great variance in minimum wages among the states it seems like no better time than the present to look at a snapshot of the data. And so I compared the minimum wage of each state (source) to the unemployment data from each state (source), graphed the data, and added a trend line.
From this simple analysis we find that there is a very weak positive correlation between increasing minimum wages and increasing unemployment. The correlation is not strong enough to draw any definitive conclusions, but does seem to favor the interpretation that wage controls are akin to price controls, and thereby have a deleterious effect. The trend line here implies an approximately 0.15% point increase in unemployment for every $1/hr raise in the minimum wage. Raising the minimum wage from its current federally mandated rate of $7.25/hr to $15/hr, which is the most common current demand of the raise-the-wage faction, would thereby be estimated to increase unemployment by 1.16%. This is actually in-line with estimates by the Congressional Budget Office (source) which predict that increasing the US minimum wage to $15/hr would reduce employment by 0.9%, putting 1.4 million workers out of a job. In my view this means raising the minimum wage would do more harm then good.
The full table of wages and unemployment by state is provided below for those curious.
there are many variables that affect employment levels besides merely the minimum wage, and as it is impossible to run economic tests in controlled laboratory conditions it is impossible to break down exactly which variables affect it and to what degree
Government doesn’t just have its thumb on the scale, it’s got its other thumb pushing the other way and it’s maw obstructing the numbers, so the whole thing is just above using divination sticks. Just the same, thank you Gadfly once again for using napkins for a productive purpose!
You’re welcome! Gotta do something with them, ’cause otherwise they’re just decorations posing as inefficient shirtsleeves.
State by state there doesn’t seem to be much correlation between the two.
It is a weak correlation, true. And a confounding factor to that is the fact that there is a national minimum wage that’s creating a floor that about half the states sit at, so that the lowest minimum wage states have everything from the best to one of the worst unemployment rates. But the rest of the states do show a correlation, albeit weak, that trends in the wrong direction.
Even among states with the federal minimum wage, 80% are below 4% unemployment. Meanwhile, half of the remaining states are above 4% unemployment.
I agree that it’s not a strong correlation, because it’s also just a snapshot in time — there’s no real data on trends in unemployment, nor all the other likely factors involved.
There’s gotta be some way to pick, say, five variables and rate each state or even city on each variable.
Regulations, MW, the number of degrees of separation between your DA and Geoege Soros, etc.
I would fear that cities and states all flow one way or the other on each variable, though. Dividing themselves neatly into two categories because that is how America rolls now.
My question would be; what are the numbers for people NOT looking for work? People who have opted out by some means, fair or foul.
I’ve been wondering the same. A lot of people lost jobs during COVID, but suddenly there aren’t enough workers? I’m confused what is going. I’ve seen some talk of people choosing to retire early, but this can’t be the entire cause. There has to be something else going on.
Those jobs aren’t paying a living wage.
/MSM
Just wondering aloud, but there is such a thing as too little unemployment. We can probably easily understand that unemployment being too high causes issues, but low unemployment can create issues of labor shortages as well if there aren’t enough people rotating through unemployment to fill job openings. Perhaps some people lost jobs but found something else, while many others are staying put because of uncertainty. If there were enough job openings prior to the pandemic and a large group of people quit or lost their current jobs but filled those openings, it could look like a labor shortage at the other end of the pandemic if the companies are either gone or cut those empty job openings. It still leaves a lot of unfilled jobs for the companies that did survive, but maybe no one is available, are unwilling, or not qualified to fill them because they’ve got an easier/more fulfilling job now. Throw in unemployment compensation on top of that, and maybe people just don’t want them?
Just spitballing here.
I’m sure there is a way, but it’s beyond my meager abilities.
It’s the small win(s) that make(s) my day.
#Worldle #110 1/6 (100%)
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https://worldle.teuteuf.fr
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? May 11, 2022 ?
? 2 | Avg. Guesses: 5.38
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#globle
#Worldle #110 3/6 (100%)
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https://worldle.teuteuf.fr
#Worldle #111 1/6 (100%)
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Someone is not going to be happy with this entry.
#Worldle #111 1/6 (100%)
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https://worldle.teuteuf.fr
*snort*
You seem to be mixing the two terms “wage” and “salary” although (at least historically) there has been a subtle difference.
Historically, wage was calculated hourly and was typically measured by time clocks. Payday was typically Friday afternoon. Overtime was paid for hours worked above 40 (or some other standard).
Salary was for a more permanent job and was, again historically, calculated at the annual level and paid in sub-units, bi-weekly, semi-monthly, whatever. Historically, salaried employees weren’t eligible for overtime. When I started into the workforce a salaried employee was allow to be more casual in his hours; as long as he got his 40 hours or so per week it all worked out. The Lab justified it as Staff Members often worked from home during off-hours so if you got 40 per week or 2080 per year, everything was cool.
A lot of that went through a fundamental shift over the years (at least at the places where I worked). Timecards showed up for engineers and off-hours work was appreciated but not accounted for.
That third category is “Overtime Exempt” where you can’t earn more than your base pay, but can earn ledd if you don’t reach the minimum hours. It’s neither salaried nor wage, it’s the worst of both worlds.
I’m wage-exempt as it is called. I view it as a nice medium. Unlike wage, I have guaranteed, flexible hours and don’t need to clock in. Unlike salaried, I can’t be forced to work extra hours to get things done.
My hours would probably be more flexible if there wasn’t a significant support aspect to my job. And if boss-boss wasn’t a spaz.
Salaried is [supposedly] for the job not the hours. If you can get it done in less time, or more time, the pay is the same. In practice, managers and companies want a certain number of hours either because the job requires it (like supervising a shift) or because they don’t want to give away free pay.
True, but since most salaried jobs have required hours, there’s a wage involved in there to some extent.
I have a personal theory that everyone has their own idea of how many hours they are going to work each week and pushing beyond that more than occasionally will result in make up elsewhere. Such as adding weekend work or overnight calls leading to to duck out earlier or longer lunches to run errands or do other stuff. Or my favorite, expecting that employees should travel before or after work so they can get a full days work in. Yeah right.
In my view this means raising the minimum wage would do more harm then good.
Good. Let’s abort it. The proggies like aborting things.
Thanks for crunching the numbers, Gadfly!
I agree. And you’re welcome!
I love posts like this. The mantra I try to infuse the youngsters around me with is “Minimum wage is zero.”
A moment of indignation followed by a, “Woah”. Makes it worthwhile.
Thanks. And that is very true, I’ve been there before.
I really like these, Gadly. Every time you post one I think, “this sounds boring” and then I really get drawn in and enjoy it. Keep them coming.
Mike is right, small economic posts and things like that are awesome.
To me, this sort of thing is the heart of libertarian thought. The idea that , “we can control the economy” butts up against the real world.
Thanks!
I’m late to the party, but agree with MikeS. Good article. Keep them coming.
Another one bites the dust.
“special advisor”
Wow! I’m not saying Bill is having people killed but he must exude some sort of sticky, dark karma. Maybe we can get him to buddy up to Putin.
The real minimum wage is zero; that seems to me an ineluctable reality regardless of what fantasists on either side of the political aisle say.
Nature does not simply yield up its bounty. If you want to get fruit, or vegetables, roots or tubers, or the flesh of animals, from nature, you have to expend energy – i.e. Work – to do it. (And you can use Newtonian mechanics to describe that physical “work” being done, if you like, and make it sound science-y, but none of those models or the economic models can alter that reality.) If you want to eat, *someone* has to pick that gorram lettuce, ‘cuz it isn’t going to walk itself to your feckin’ door.
(Ask Rudyard Kipling – he said it as well as it can be said).
The only conclusion from that I can see if either (a) you believe in forced work (servitude of some kind for someone) in order for you to eat, or you believe in trading goods and services for it on equal terms.
The least qualified person on the planet can produce energy. i.e. Work – and trade that for some currency to feed themselves.
I don’t feel particularly compelled to address the “what about the handicapped/otherwise incapable/etc.??” case because it’s special pleading, trying to alter reality – and the nature of the discussion – by smuggling in a moral obligation. Most times, it’s intellectually dishonest, too. i.e. The people using it will simultaneous adhere to a philosophical construct that negates any permanent morality – Morality – at all. Which tells you what’s really at work is manipulation, not honest discussion about the minimum wage.
And I do NOT mean to tear down the post, because I – like others – love it. In this case, it just turned my mind to one step earlier in the argument over the minimum wage.
Because it does seem to me that the moment we’re arguing about what the utilitarian “math” answer is to “unemployment,” we’ve completely ceded the field. I don’t care which way the slope of the line goes.
It divorces the entire moral argument from the most important aspect of this – the government’s compelled theft from one person, a business owner, at the point of a gun.
Washing dishes was never worth $15/hr. Never. (I am intimately familiar with it). Carrying sacks of flower and sugar up the stairs and giant mixing bowls filled with all of the mess left by the bakers from even earlier than I had to get there, was not worth $15/hr. Still isn’t today.
All min wage does is twist one group’s arm in favor of some other group’s -it’s picking winners and losers, whether anybody wants to admit it or not. It’s hell on small businesses.
When stationed in the Azores I got quite accustomed to the local economy.
When we would go to the larger towns and walk the streets we would come across some fellows who had lost their legs and were obviously pensioners. The State gave them a job: all of the streets and sidewalks on the island were cobblestone. With the humid climate plants would quickly grow in the gaps between these cobblestones. These old men were paid to dig out the plants between the stones along the streets. We would see them daily, talking and joking, scraping the vegetation with little picks. They got some compensation for their work and their welfare checks improved the local economy and it gave them purpose.
I’d like to see welfare recipients in the US cleaning the streets. Provide something positive to society.
In NYC we sometimes create “Business Improvement Districts” to get the streets and sidewalks cleaned, because the city workers don’t do it. There is one on my cross street (Fifth Avenue). The shops that line the street up and down fork over a little dough to pay the cleaning crews I see out there all the time. I was walking down Third Avenue the other day (another commercial street) and I saw a sign in a window arguing against a B.I.D. there. It’s a little less busy over there and if I’m being honest, a little more “elite”, so I can see why they don’t want it. But I like the sort-of voluntariness of it. Though I do wonder what businesses on Fifth Avenue who don’t want to pay for the B.I.D. do.
Is it 3rd or 5th that has the freeway running over it?
That’s 3rd Ave. in Sunset Park. Very different from 3rd Ave. in Bay Ridge.
Though I do wonder what businesses on Fifth Avenue who don’t want to pay for the B.I.D. do.
*cue NY mob thuggery reference*
I hear The Sopranos theme song.
Your BIDs aren’t government entities? The ones I know of aren’t voluntary. They are created by the government with the fees included in property taxes.
*tap, tap, tap, scroll*
It appears to be a “public/private partnership”.
They encourage “contiguous” properties but do not appear to require it. Businesses that don’t pay are “not eligible” for whatever services.
#metoo
I suspect that another thing MW does is suppress people’s will to improve themselves. I fell into that trap for some years.
I disagree. Not with your claim that this post is awesome, but that using math cedes the high ground. We, libertarians, do not hold the high ground. Rather, we need to attack it, constantly, and in doing so can never rest on our heels. We have to show both the moral side of thing, that minimum wages are bad, and the mathematical side, here’s how. We need to prove to prove our morals AND our economics are superior.
‘Nature does not simply yield up its bounty.’
Even the soil must toil to yeild. Regardless if anyone reapse.
Something about getting head from a copyrighter.
And I do NOT mean to tear down the post, because I – like others – love it. In this case, it just turned my mind to one step earlier in the argument over the minimum wage.
No worries. I’m happy if my posts spur larger discussions. I always like reading the discussions here, even if I don’t jump in.
Because it does seem to me that the moment we’re arguing about what the utilitarian “math” answer is to “unemployment,” we’ve completely ceded the field. I don’t care which way the slope of the line goes.
While I agree philosophically, I’m always more sympathetic to practical measures, even if that means ceding some ground. It is necessary to have people out there using philosophical arguments to push the edge of the Overton window in the right direction, but it is also necessary to have people being more practical in the middle inching the tug-of-war rope over the center line in the right direction.
The ‘washing dishes’ point will never get past the Labor Theory of Value people, though. Every one of them (pampered people who’ve never washed a dish in their life, mostly) will tell you all about how it’s hard work and it’s useful and it’s not just pushing paper for Greedy Capitalists, man! “how can you say the dishwasher is worth less than the manager!!!” And I have yet to find any real counter to it, tbh. It’s obviously disingenuously conflating the value of the person with the value of the job, but just like with the “no person is illegal” slogan, it doesn’t help to point that out.
Having been both a dishwasher and a manager, I can tell you that anyone can do the dishwashing job. A lot of people don’t exercise the sense required to be a good manager (even a lot of managers) Plus it takes a lot less time to get a dishwasher up to speed with the job, so replacement is easier.
In progspeak – How dare you deny my lived experience!
Ha! I think that’s the right rejoinder.
“how can you say the dishwasher is worth less than the manager!!!” And I have yet to find any real counter to it,”
How can you say all jobs are worth exactly the same? What’s the basis for that assertion?
Would probably be where I would start.
Short of comatose or mentally handicapped to the point of being a vegetable, people with a handicap can do something, maybe not as well or as quickly as others, but there is something productive they can do to support themselves.
At one time, people paid for apprenticeships. So the minimum wage is actually less than zero.
Yup, send your kid off to a tradesman at 7yo and pay for the boy’s upkeep.
It’s his dowry.
As family archivist I was, at first, surprised to find the graduation certificates for many family members graduating for the Eighth Grade. After some thought I realized that, back in The Day, an eighth grade education made you an educated person, ready to move on to training for your eventual career. You knew how to read, to write, to solve simple arithmetic problems and had a pretty good understanding of US and world history (unlike the graduates of today.) You had enough basic education to allow you to obtain training in the trade or occupation of your choice.
The 1950 census is now available and in trying to see if I could find some of my wife’s family in N FL I could see a whole community where most of the adults had only a grade-school education.
It’s nice to complete something.
In my case today – It’s a Necron Commander
Where’s the banana?
???
https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/banana-for-scale
These models are tiny. The banana wouldn’t have fit in the frame.
So, a plantain?
I hate you people.
Tiny violin for scale.
I would think a tiny piano would be better for scales.
Zwak, a fish would be better for scales. You can’t tune a piano, but you can tune a fish.
Wow, for weird. I couldn’t see any of the comments under my “know your meme” link until I posted my “alternate comment” below. The squirrels are getting more devious with their shenanigans.
Alternate comment:
Very cool! I think you mentioned in other comments that it is quite small and required a very steady hand. It would be helpful to see a reference object in frame with it to better visualize how small it is.
Here’s the model with a dime and some better lighting
Wow, those things are small. I didn’t realize your painting is precision work.
Wow, that’s some really precise work. Nicely done,
Thank you.
I have no idea what a Necron Commander is (Warhammer?), but that’s some fine detail.
Yes, it’s from warhammer.
Funny thing is, I haven’t played the game itself in years.
Hmm, I have this vague recollection of a study that demonstrated a fairly clear correlation between raising the minimum wage and rising youth/entry level employment.
Employment or unemployment? Either way, that would be interesting to read.
Employment – Card and Krueger 1994. Used a state border and changing minimum wage.
Here’s a good explanation https://fee.org/articles/what-the-card-krueger-study-tells-us-about-the-minimum-wage/
Thanks! That was an interesting read.
There is no minimum wage for Firsting. Just like there is no maximum wage. There is no correlation between Firsting and salaried offered. Firsting exists outside the realities of supply and demand. It is the model for the post scarcity world.
Post-scarcity?
Au contraire. There can only be one First, the ultimate scarcity item.
Hoisted on his own petard.
Up way too late writing code and I can’t just go straight to bed because I’ll end up having “code dreams”, which is not at all restful.
TechGlibs, am I the only one who has that problem?
Attempting to sooth the grey matter with some rye first. That has its own issues, but a worthwhile tradeoff.
I went to bed early Tuesday night, at 9 pm, aided by do s diphenhydramine.
Figured that way I could get up early Wednesday morning and have a good long workday.
Backfired big time. Woke up at 12:30 AM and was awake, lying in bed overthinking everything until 6 am when I got up to get ready for bed. The overthinking led yo weird very short dreams during short nap stints through the night. I didn’t like it.
I hope my sleep deprivation from last night leads to good sleep tonight.
Good luck to you also.
You played that wrong. You were supposed to wake up Mr. for some naked fun time.
https://philadelphia.cbslocal.com/2022/05/12/south-philadelphia-shooting-man-kills-armed-robber-6th-street/
When they properly label the victim and say permit to carry that usually signifies a good shoot.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=zvCBSSwgtg4
?
I have a person interviewing for a job today. Minimum wage ain’t even close to starting wages.
It shouldn’t be this hard to hire people.
https://newjerseyglobe.com/governor/murphy-unveils-legislative-plan-to-further-expand-abortion-access-in-n-j/
Abortions.
Abortions.
Abortions.
🙄
Good luck beating out NY in the fight for abortion tourism.
That’ll be a fight to the bottom of a deep hole.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/new-mexico-wildfire-grows-california-fire-destroys-mansions/ar-AAXbbZD
“A federal disaster already has been declared because of the blaze, which is partly the result of a preventative fire that escaped containment on April 6 after it was set to clear brush and small trees so they could not serve as wildfire fuel. That fire merged with another wildfire several weeks later.”
Oops.
As my father’s rancher buddies would say, “It’s a controlled burn until somebody lights a match.”
Mornin Glibs.
Good morning, fine sir.
Mornin’.
Off to the gym soon.
Good morning, Sean, l0, and DEG!
The only thing I have to say related to my labor (at least until I’ve had more of my coffee) is that I’m hoping to cut mine short today and ideally, not do any tomorrow. And after a trip to the Y this afternoon, I’m picking up dinner from our new Culver’s! ?????
Mm, sounds like cheesy heaven.
Deep-fried cheese curds and frozen custard FTW!! (No custard tonight – detour on the way home, so settling for shakes.)
NH’s minimum wage is $7.25/hr. I know of no place near me that employs people that cheap. In fact, the grocery store closest to me is offering new hires $13/hr.
Back when I was a teenager working at a grocery store in PA, I made a hair above minimum wage. Minimum wage was $4.25/hr, I made $4.40/hr. When there was talk of raising the minimum wage, I was worried I was going to lose my job. I remember explaining to some folks, “If we’re worth that much, why weren’t we hired at that rate? Is the company going to be able to employ us at that rate? I don’t know. We might lose our jobs.”
Thanks Gadfly!
Good questions. In my Rust Belt youth those sorts of jobs were all MW.
Good point. TX is another state at the federal minimum wage, but I routinely see signs offering much higher pay at the fast food joints (although admittedly I’m in an urban area, where wages and rents tend to be higher).
Ouch!
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Seed words did dun good, pluss lucky guess on TL
Seed words givith …
Seed words taketh away.
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20 again. I can live with 20.
There is a group of people that don’t show up statistically. Covid shut downs amplified that group. Barter/off the books/cash, etc. It’s impossible to get a handle on the numbers but each of us has a ‘friend’ that will work in a non regulated capacity. I worked in a lumber yard and took my pay in materials, did the same thing for a contractor and ended up with tractor. I’m guessing many of the ‘new arrivals’ are in that group.
The Hidden Economy
Good job, Gadfly
That’s true too. It would be interesting to know how large the hidden economy actually is.
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Aaarggghh!
Mornin’, reprobates. On the bus going into the office for the first time in over two years. I had forgotten how much I hate commuting. Had a funny senior moment – got confused by the new ticket dispenser, which gives you a choice between the regular fare and the discounted senior/ disabled fare. Guess which one I chose.
Extra Crispy?
Extra pricey. Younguns did not subsidize today’s commute.
With bacon.
Ew. I hope it’s not a regular thing that you have to go in if you don’t want to. Or not; maybe you like being forced to do things against your will; I’m not your supervisor and I don’t judge. But ‘Ew’.
We have some new tap-to-pay thingie that was in the middle of being rolled out last summer, the last time I rode a bus or subway. That reminds me… my Metrocard expired in October. Gotta take that baby to a machine so I don’t lose the dough on it.
Hanging out in Chumptown.
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????? ⬜⬜??⬜
⬛⬛⬛⬛⬛ ⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜
⬛⬛⬛⬛⬛ ?⬜⬜⬜⬜
⬛⬛⬛⬛⬛ ⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜
⬛⬛⬛⬛⬛ ⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜
⬛⬛⬛⬛⬛ ⬜⬜???
6 9
7 X
…and we’re living here in Chumptown
and we’re burning all our guesses down
Daily Quordle 108
8️⃣5️⃣
6️⃣7️⃣
quordle.com
⬜⬜⬜⬜? ⬜?⬜⬜?
?⬜⬜⬜⬜ ⬜⬜⬜?⬜
⬜⬜?⬜? ???⬜?
⬜⬜?⬜? ???⬜?
⬜⬜?⬜? ?????
⬜?⬜⬜? ⬛⬛⬛⬛⬛
⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜ ⬛⬛⬛⬛⬛
????? ⬛⬛⬛⬛⬛
⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜ ⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜
?⬜?⬜? ⬜??⬜⬜
⬜⬜?⬜⬜ ⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜
⬜⬜??⬜ ⬜⬜⬜?⬜
⬜⬜?⬜⬜ ⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜
????? ⬜⬜??⬜
⬛⬛⬛⬛⬛ ?????
Daily Quordle 108
6️⃣7️⃣
4️⃣8️⃣
quordle.com
⬜⬜??⬜ ?⬜???
⬜⬜⬜?? ⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜
⬜⬜?⬜? ???⬜?
⬜?⬜⬜? ⬜?⬜⬜⬜
⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜ ⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜
????? ⬜?⬜⬜?
⬛⬛⬛⬛⬛ ?????
⬜⬜⬜?⬜ ⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜
?⬜⬜⬜? ⬜?⬜⬜⬜
⬜⬜??⬜ ⬜⬜⬜?⬜
????? ⬜⬜??⬜
⬛⬛⬛⬛⬛ ⬜???⬜
⬛⬛⬛⬛⬛ ⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜
⬛⬛⬛⬛⬛ ⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜
⬛⬛⬛⬛⬛ ?????
suh’ fam
whats goody
Campfire didn’t become a wildfire.
You didnt use enough kerosene. Or as my hillbilly family calls it…”coal oil”
Not “orl”?
Rolls off the tongue more like “earl”.
Like the terlet at Archie Bunker’s house.
Wait….we got a Culver’s ?
I mean, it aint no White Castle but it still has its place.
Yup. South end of the Miller Lane Restaurant Row (where the Ruby Tuesday’s used to be.)
I love how they abandoned IHOP only to put up a new IHOP by 75.
LEGO nerd vid.
Cute. We usedta play that game for realsies back in the long ago. Many mishaps and misadventures. It’s amazing how you can escape most situations with nothing more than a jack-all, brute force and spirit.
Coming to a Mars Rover near you, probably?
l0b0t: I watched “Interplanet Janet” that I think you linked on the zoom last night. Now it’s an earworm, but a pleasant one.