In Part 1, I ended with Learned Hand’s famous cost-benefit formulation in the Law of Negligence:
Since there are occasions when every vessel will break from her moorings, and since, if she does, she becomes a menace to those about her; the owner’s duty, as in other similar situations, to provide against resulting injuries is a function of three variables: (1) The probability that she will break away; (2) the gravity of the resulting injury, if she does; (3) the burden of adequate precautions. Possibly it serves to bring this notion into relief to state it in algebraic terms: if the probability be called P; the injury, L; and the burden, B; liability depends upon whether B is less than L multiplied by P: i. e., whether B > PL.
Now before I get down legal rabbit holes, I want to make a few things clear after my braying about Hand’s genius in Part 1: first, I’m not sure that he is completely correct, but I’m still certain of the genius of his contribution, in the same way that I’m not certain that Newton or Einstein or Seaborg or Oppenheimer were completely right about everything they offered, but I’m no less certain of the genius and value of the contributions. Carroll Towing‘s contribution to the intersection of law and economics continues to be discussed, anayzed, and debated using high-level mathsz that are… interesting to me, but only academically.
Some important caveats apply because Hand does some other “calculations” and never explicitly accounts for the value judgments that underlie those decisions elsewhere in the opinion. For example, Hand notes that the Anna C.’s bargee
left at five o’clock in the afternoon of January 3rd, and the flotilla broke away at about two o’clock in the afternoon of the following day, twenty-one hours afterwards. The bargee had been away all the time, and we hold that his fabricated story was affirmative evidence that he had no excuse for his absence.
Second, the court “deduces” that had the bargee been on board the Anna C. when it cast off, he would have been in a position to communicate with the other ships, including the tug, and save the Anna C., as well as her cargo, and ergo, is entitled to no damages for the Anna C. sinking. This gets us into deeper areas of negligence law governing contributory negligence and supervening/intervening causes, and a host of other areas that are outside the scope of our consideration, but they represent important judgments about how liability gets apportioned using non-falsifiable alternate realities. Hand also makes some judgment calls about who would have done what if the bargee had been present during the line switching by the harbormaster and deck hand. Hand presumes that the harbormaster could have “ignored” any protest by the Anna C.’s bargee over line-handling, so is therefore still entitled to some of the “collision damages.”
Notwithstanding all of this, I think Hand’s opinion is useful is because it gets us to begin thinking about the line-drawing we do in society around other people’s behaviors in terms of risk analysis, (B>PL) something human beings have been wired to do, have been doing in the area of infectious disease spread long before tort law, and should have no problem adapting to infectious diseases that spread via less demanding vectors, such as sexual contact. Now, I previously said I wanted to stay away from criminal cases involving HIV transmission as templates because criminal law involves issues of mens rea and, as I noted previously, someone who has a deadly, contagious illness, and knowingly engages in intimate contact that is likely to cause infection, and doesn’t tell the other person ahead of time is at (IMO) the outer boundary limit of useful discussion. Of course that’s an NAP violation. There’s not much else useful to be gleaned from discussing that example.
However, sexual contact also involves questions of disclosure – i.e. what obligations are owed between people engaging in sex, specifically by those who have a sexually transmitted disease/infection? People have been knowingly and unknowingly giving each other all of the possible permutations of life-threatening (syphilis) but treatable, and non-life threatening (gonorrhea) and curable (crabs), incurable (HIV) – but now treatable – and that’s to say nothing of pregnancy and abortion risks, for as long… well, at least all of recorded history, would be my assertion. What’s amazing is that we engage in all manner of mitigative steps, risk calculations, avoidant behaviors, or flagrant, or dangerous behaviors, and yet no one thinks we need the government’s help in sorting that out beyond the extreme, and extremely rare, cases. I know a woman whose fiancée gave her an STD that cannot be cured. They stayed together for some time after that, managed it as a part of their relationship, then eventually broke up. What is she going to do – sue him now?
We have societal/cultural/even human expectations that before someone engages in something as significant as the reproductive act, they simply must be aware of at least some of the possible consequences – and legally speaking, we either impute that knowledge to them (is one way of describing it). For example, would a case lie for a 25 year-old woman who got pregnant as a result of sex and then claimed that her partner didn’t tell her that was a possibility? That she had therefore been the victim of fraud? Would anyone vote to convict the man whose defense was simply that he’d asked and she’d said yes? It’s laughable to bring it up, but it’s important because it illustrates the point: we have certain baseline expectations of anyone who is of a certain age and operating inside of this meatsack just like the rest of us are, so perhaps the “reasonable (wo)man” standard isn’t so much a legal fiction as it is a necessary “standard/unit of measure” for adjudicating if/when there has been been a harm and/or assigning consequences to the proper party where we recognize a legal harm.
Let’s slide back and to the right for a moment because the decision to engage in behavior that we expect adults to at least have some ideas about, such as sex, also requires intimate contact that doesn’t raise the same concerns of transmission that COVID19 does. So, let us suppose instead for a moment that I know I have been in contact with someone, like my daughter the nursing tech, who was in contact with someone else (a patient) who might have COVID19? What are my legal “duties,” societal obligations, vis a vis the rest of the world? What externalities am I now obliged to mitigate? What, to use the template I’ve raised, does my B>PL readout look like under Hand’s formulation?
In my opinion, this is where the important discussion really begins. The exact framework (or “balancing test”) that you, or I, or a court, uses isn’t nearly as important as long as the there is a workable model and it captures the relevant interests at stake. The common law is excellent in this way at evolving from various fact-patterns to refine the model/framework/balancing test as new “data” comes into the ‘black box’ of litigation. So, my daughter told me she was awaiting her patient’s COVID results, but she had purchased a coffee table for her new apartment and needed to borrow my truck to go get it, and… couldIpleasecometodaybecauseit’sheavyDadandI’mworkingtomorrowplease?
I hadn’t seen middle-daughter in a few weeks and the father-daughter hockey game we were supposed to go see between the ‘Yotes and Canucks had just gone kaput. I also had a big stack of her mail that keeps getting sent to the house from when she was staying here and some of it was almost two weeks old.
What is my Burden, my Probability, and the Injury (L)?
Here is where it gets interesting because there are a range of possible outcomes, and sliding scales of danger (i.e. probabilities of harm) – much as I discussed before with STDs – and as with everything else in life… such as controlling 2500-3500 lb. vehicles hurtling through space at speeds of 80 mph in close proximity to other cars doing the same thing, all with their completely independent, unknown agendas, with varying degrees of mitigating or risky behaviors one and others can take, from talking on the phone to wearing a seatbelt to driving while intoxicated. And then there’s the point that we insure against risks, all kinds of risks, like car accidents, and thefts, and rocks hitting our windshield, and actuaries and claims adjusters process gajillions of points of data to make cost determinations for premiums and deductibles and hospital coverage… To use just one example.
Being in possible contact with someone who was/or might have been exposed to COVID comprises a whole range of possible risks, from death to mildly ill to nothing whatsoever, and depends in part on other mitigating behaviors, from wearing masks, to meeting outside, standing farther away from people, washing hands more often, avoiding those who are at higher risk, etc. Then there’s the various contingent events that have to come to be for a worst case scenario: (1) that my daughter was exposed, and (2) that she is now a carrier, and (3) that our driving in my truck together to get a coffee table and bring it back to her apartment will be sufficient to infect me, after which I then (4) bring myself into contact with someone else, and that contact is also (5) sufficient to cause them to contract the virus, and (6) either that person will get sick and/or die of COVID, or (7) transmit it to someone else whom they otherwise might not have. There are also a host of other possibilities, including everything from she was exposed and doesn’t have it, to she does and our contact isn’t sufficient to transfer it to me, to the mitigating actions I can take on my own (ride my motorcycle and leave my helmet on while out; wear a mask; only interact with my own family members; and on and on) and all of those mitigating measures have to be accounted for, in some fashion, in an honest comparison of whatever one defines to be inside of the “P x L < B.” All of these could probably be subjected to some kind of Vegas-like probability analysis, with the infection rates controlled for various lifestyle and mitigating factors, much like insurance actuaries do for motorcycle and/or car drivers, and red car drivers, and drivers under 25, and on and on, to make it look super-science-y! All of this, by the way, would point towards our reaction being completely over-the-top and out-of-proportion when we are talking about 775 total deaths in the US as of March 25, as I type this.
There are other aspects of this, too, I submit, of which even a cursory consideration shows that we are quickly trending to the absurd. Wherever and whenever we speak of legal obligations we are ultimately making judgments of where and when it is sufficient to use the force of the State against an individual who doesn’t “measure” up. If I can prove you stole from me, under the procedures that we establish for adjudicating “harm” (“externalities”), a jury of my peers will award me money damages that comes out of your ass…ets. In criminal law, the Law actually does take it out of your ass…eventually, via third parties.
Let’s push on for a moment to the place where I am most comfortable and have made a living for the last two decades, the place where the “rubber” of a citizens’s rights meets the “road” of the State’s Power: the courtroom. Those who believe that there are affirmative legal obligations on each and every citizen to the larger society with respect to “flattening the curve,” or limiting the spread of infectious disease, presumable have some B > PL formulation in which the calculus works out against the individual’s Freedom and Liberty to make their own calculated choice during epidemics to conduct themselves as they see fit as a rational adult. It didn’t even take me one page of searching to find that there are people who beat me to this schtick; it also perfectly illustrates that you can make anything fit your preferred outcome by simply ignoring/disregarding/being unaware of a whole range of relevant interests. We’re right back to the “measurement problem” I keep talking about, except in this instance, even a comprehensive measurement system (like Hand’s) doesn’t work if you don’t measure things that might impact your desired outcome. This is like being an accountant and deciding that you don’t want to include “expenses” in your calculations because you really need to show a profit at the end of this spreadsheet.
The most egregious failing in that piece, however, isn’t that it comes out contra what I believe, it’s that it doesn’t even acknowledge what I find to be the most significant problem of all with the “shelter in place (or else)” mantra: the process by which one would adjudicate who has crossed the B > PL line from “this is acceptable behavior” to “this is out of bounds.” I don’t mean the the measurement/ruler problem, though; I mean the mechanical problem of proving that someone has not “measured up.”
My daughter texted me a couple of days after I helped her move. “Welp, looks like I’m now a possible vector of COVID!?” read the message. I talked to her later and she told me that her patient was the one that tested positive of the 3 that came in on the night in question. Which means that I have akshually been in contact with someone who’s been in the presence of the dreaded WuFlu!
Now let’s gin up the hypothetical-case machine and pretend that the woman at the FedEx store where I dropped off my package tests positive for COVID19. She is in her late-50’s, mildly overweight, also is a smoker and pre-diabetic. The AZ version of the crack CDC COVID-response team conducts a thorough investigation and they get a list of customers and eventually show up at my door asking questions, to which I coolly reply, “Do you have a warrant? No? Fuck off then, please.” Okay, probably not, but there are real questions here for the Statists who think that a mandatory lockdown is a real power the State has, or should have. Does the “State’s” interest in controlling the pandemic now vitiate my right to remain silent? Can they just snatch me on the spot and take me to the hospital to take a test for COVID19? Can that test result be used against me in a civil proceeding by the FedEx woman’s family for damages if she dies? What should be the quantum of proof necessary to convince a jury that I’m legally responsible? In a criminal proceeding it’s beyond a reasonable doubt, but civil proceedings have everything from “clear and convincing” down to “preponderance of the evidence” (more likely than not). Then – what about my right to reciprocal discovery, my right to present evidence that would make it less likely I’m guilty or liable, and to present evidence in extenuation or mitigation? Wouldn’t I have the right to know everyone else that woman had come into contact with and from whom she might also have gotten the disease? Wouldn’t that be essential to a fair trial, to allow me to show that I wasn’t the proximate cause at all?
The people who believe that the Governor or President can order us into our homes, or to cease making a living, may not realize it, but they (necessarily) believe that our individual legal obligations during a pandemic include the duty to stay home, or the duty to not work, and that violations of those obligations can be met with the force of the State. That’s what the Law is.
Now, if you’re reading the last two paragraphs and thinking, “Hey! Wait a minute… you made me read more than 5500 words of your bullshit in two separate pieces just to conclude that shelter in place orders are completely unworkable as a matter of practical nuts and bolts trial procedures? Why didn’t you just say that up front, asshole!?” My response to that is twofold. First, on the asshole charge, I plead guilty to a lesser-included-offense. Second, I offer this thought on my experience in trying to convince smart people of anything: you have to meet smart people “where they are” and that frequently includes distracting them with lots of smart-people trinkets, like law review articles from Princeton, and economics articles from Brown, and quotes from jurists named “Learned Hand.” It’s kinda like giving your kid the car keys to distract them from their hunger. ?
In all seriousness, the real reason I took the “road less traveled” to get here is that I wanted to conduct a serious inquiry into how we engage in risk analysis and mitigation all of the time, in every aspect of our lives. From learning to walk to touching a hot stove to driving a car to taking our kids to the beach, we are pattern recognition machines par excellence whose brains are engaged in a nonstop process of “Observe-Orient-Decide-Act,” Col. Boyd’s famed “OODA loop.” Learned Hand’s B >PL is as good a starting point as any (and better than most) for cost-benefit analyses involving legal obligations; and it is my contention that we have been doing this exact thing sub rosa in the area of transmission of diseases and viruses, up to and including ones that are deadly for certain portions of our population, for millennia. We are wired this way.
Quarantine of small segments of a population may be necessary in the most dire of circumstances, the stuff of which movies are made, but none of the movies ever address how to square these “life-saving” measures with Freedom or Liberty; if the solution is life in a cage, all alone, for each of us, I’m not sure what we’ve “saved.” Of course, in the movies and TV the emergency measures are always “just temporary” until the heroes just beat the clock and cure the virus at great risk to themselves, but never do the movies – or the statists – deal with the more trenchant problem of less than life-ending consequences and risks, possibilities of mitigation, and how to assign liability in the event someone knowingly or negligently gets someone else sick. The brass tacks of that happen to be my specialty, particularly the processes, standards of proof, and rights that we all have within that adjudicative function. Everyone rushing to signal their virtue by supporting the suspension of our rights – if it saves “just one life!” – doesn’t seem to understand the Trolley Problem and undoubtedly hasn’t read the great Mister Bastiat on “That Which is Seen and That Which Is Not Seen.” For every life claimed to be saved by the extraordinary resources we have diverted to COVID, someone with diabetes, or sepsis, PTSD, or addicted to opioids, or some other illness or problem has been on the short end of the resource re-allocation. There are no free lunches.
I leave you with this: We’re going to be fine. Some number of us will get sick; a vastly smaller number of people will succumb to the disease. The trees will still turn CO2 and sunlight into oxygen and food, the skies will cloud and rain, and the sun will shine again. Love your friends and neighbors, and conduct your B > PL for yourself, the same as you do for everything else in your life. We’ve moved beyond leper colonies as a species and we don’t need a return to that for infectious diseases.
It is really difficult for me to read through this and not get pissed off. Really pissed off.
“Look, Suthen, I know there are a few typos, but that seems a bit over the top…”
The shutdown is infuriating. I think it was cyto who called it the “suicide of a civilization” or something like that. It’s hard to watch for those of us who value Liberty. I’m working on a piece I’m going to submit here and publish everywhere that I hope will raise some awareness, but will be a rebuke to the American people. I doubt it will make me very popular.
Oh, I am not pissed at you Ozzy. I am pissed at the coronatards and the people who started and are driving this cluster.
I wouldn’t worry too much about your popularity given what you have written so far. I think the people who count know who you are and what you stand for.
Yes, but the premise of my piece is… rather unkind to a swath of Americans. I’ll give you a teaser: you know how most people agree that “war for freedom” is a bad idea because you can’t export freedom? As in, Iraq didn’t just break out in “democracy” or get a big hankering for individual liberty because the Iraqis don’t roll that way; ditto for the Afghans.
Suppose I made the observation that having learned that lesson in the military by going abroad, I’ve come home to find out it’s true here, too. You can’t “give” a Constitutional Republic to people who don’t have it in them to be the way it is necessary to be in order to sustain it. Now imagine it done with my inimitable… uhhh… charm.
You can’t “give” a Constitutional Republic to people who don’t have it in them to be the way it is necessary to be in order to sustain it
Yup the last three months, independent of, but supported by the CV response, i have come to really understand how liberty requires constant vigilance and a lot of brave people willing to act. I’ve been pondering how we can act to defend liberty at this time, and i’m not sure what the best path forward is.
*hoists black flag, spits on hands,…*
^^^^This right here.
The modern American has no fucking clue what Freedom loving badasses the original colonists were. George Washington was a pipe-hittin’, hard-ass mofo. Ditto for most of the country at the time. When the Powder Alarm happened in 1774-75 (?) – a British attempt to seize a powder house – a series of runners sprinted across the state to carry the word and 20,000 Massholes marched in response. They eventually got the word to stand down en route. The Revolution was delayed. Today people cower in the houses on the words of simpering pussies.
Yeah, but i mean those guys were crazy milita kooks. And our Militia kooks are all bad people now, i heard so on the news.
I’m reading a bio of Patrick Henry right now. We are living in a different time and a different world. Even then there were the Loyalists.
*orders Hawaiian shirt
“You can’t “give” a Constitutional Republic to people who don’t have it in them”
It occurs to me that you can’t give it to anyone. It only works with people who have a negative rather than a positive attitude. ‘Fuck off and leave me alone’ works better than ‘Here is how I think things should be for everyone else’.
Re your (hopefully) upcoming article:
Give ’em Hell, Ozy! Your labors would be worthwhile if they only turned one or two of the sheep around. So many times here lately I’ve despaired for what our country once was. And what it could be again.
I hope, at the very least, it gets some of those who may initially react negatively to your argument to at least THINK about it.
People do risk assessments and/or cost to benefit analysis all the time, in virtually every aspect of their daily lives. It’s not out of bounds to suggest we do the same with respect to policies enacted by local, state, and federal governments in response to the commie cough.
I haven’t committed any crime. I haven’t been charged. I haven’t been indicted. I haven’t had council. I haven’t been tried. I haven’t been convicted or sentenced.
“Yeah, but the governor has ordered …..”
” I dont take orders from the hired help. ”
The crux of this is whether or not merely existing or moving about constitutes a danger to others.
I would say taking reasonable measures to minimize danger to others without surrendering your liberty is no violation of the NAP. The clerk at the drive through window is not being forced at the point of a gun to serve me. I was not forced at the point of a gun to have a FaceTime appt with my doctor yesterday.
After that…fuck the Chinese. Goddamned savages should be punished severely.
The crux of this is whether or not merely existing or moving about constitutes a danger to others.
Life is a risk and none of us make it out alive.
Well except Elijah.
Imagine the law school hypothetical about suing the government of the People’s Democratic Republic of China.
How much of the lying/coverup/whatever occurred in the United States by people with papers issued by China? Count as one of the exceptions in Foreign Sovereign Immunities Act?
Also, Foreign Sovereign Immunities Act does not apply in courts other than US.
I know the guy who successfully sued Libya over Lockerbie. It can be done.
Did he collect? If so, how?
I believe the families got something out of a pool of assets that the govt had seized in response way back.
See, for example, https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2008/nov/21/lockerbie-libya
Attorney’s commission when judgment (X >1) times US$1,000,000,000,000
Rufus over at Reasonoids posted this article about a UK think tank suggesting the G7 sue China over the commie cough:
I hope this happens.
You fuckers need to wake up. I was first and second?
That’s got to be worth some kind of GIF from the edit fairies!
I am technically at work.
Bureaucrat Conrad, you are technically correct — the best kind of correct. I hereby promote you to grade 37.
— Number 1.0 (Futurama in Season 2 Episode 15)
I am actually at work.
I haven’t missed a day since the shelter in place.
I’m the only one here though.
At work and working have always been two entirely different things.
Well, of course.
I, too, am at the office.
I had to attend my FiL’s funeral this morning.
He wasn’t a Wuhan Flu victim, but he was in the right demographic… 87 years old, living in the State Vet’s Home with Parkinson’s and long term dementia.
He’d been on hospice care for a month and a half, when he stopped eating properly.
That is generally the kind of people that COVID is killing. As of last week about 1% of the deaths in NY didn’t have some recognizable underlying condition, and it appears about 35% of the deaths fall into his general demographic range.
We are definitely over-reacting.
Sorry about your FIL, man.
I’m a little surprised the funeral was allowed.
Immediate family only, with a live stream for out-of-towners.
We all set in separate pews to “social distance” me from the grand-kids.
It was a little weird, with no military honors at the Vet’s Cemetery, while we watched a crew plant him, but weren’t allowed to get out of the car.
“Weren’t allowed out of the car.” Fuck. That really sucks.
Very sorry for your loss.
Very sorry for your loss, Bo.
Sorry to hear that Bob.
Sorry to hear about your FIL.
I’m sorry for your loss.
I’m sorry, Bob.
Its hard not to be sad but when Grandpa gets those conditions we hear “Well, he’s in a better place now”. Whether he is or not we don’t know but we do know the suffering is over, the most important thing to the most important person involved.
Give the missus another hug, cherish the memories, tell your kids the stories Grandpa told you.
I was working.
I’ve reach the point of believing none of it. They found a way to align the grasping statists with the busy-body Karens.
That is a half-hour long video. Care to put it in a nutshell?
He showed up at the “hardest hit” most overflowing hospitals in the country according to the “News reports” – and they were kind of empty.
My daughter has had her hours cut back severely since this started. I believe RC Dean has captured this quite well. All of the hysteria around COVUID caused hospitals to cancel “elective” surgeries – now that the stacks of bodies haven’t shown up, hospitals are having to furlough staff because they simply can’t afford to pay them for non-work. This while thing is a wonderful exercise in the Law of Unintended Consequences. (Or maybe Intended Consequences, depending upon who you’re talking about).
Yep. My doc friend is working three days a week, mostly telehealth. His sis is an ER doc and her dept has been losing money and furloughing employees.
Neighbor is a nurse at a surgery center. Furloughed.
It goes on and on. I just had a talk with my wife that things aren’t going to just switch back on at some point. Two of our favorite restaurants will be closed for good by the end of the month. It’s so bad, one of the owners published his fixed costs and the number of orders he needs to have ordered for takeout each day to hopefully tread water until they can fully reopen.
Yup. These idiots, in the name of saving hospitals to respond to the crisis, are killing them.
And now that the newest modelling shows no capacity crisis, they should allow elective surgeries again, since that is essential to the financial and operational health of hospitals.
But not one fucking wannabe jackboot has lifted a ban on electives.
At this point, I believe that part of the game, for some of the players, is to use the Kommie Kough Krisis to render most of the heatlh care system insolvent so it can be nationalized. You’d have to be a fucking moron to extend the economic shutdown past May at the absolute latest, but that’s what a lot of Our Masters are doing. An absolutely foreseeable result of that is to render the entire health care system 100% reliant on government money. Presto – nationalization is just a formality at that point. Not this summer, perhaps, but when the next flu season hits, probably with some kind of second Commie Cough wave stacked on top of it, look for it then.
Anyone who thinks that when the emergency orders are lifted there will be some kind immediate reversion to the status quo ante is too stupid to be let out in public without a helmet and a minder. We are looking at unemployment levels unseen since the Great Depression. This will take years to recover from.
Look if hospitals can only operate successfully in our capitalist system when there are elective operations occuring, doesn’t that mean we should just turn it over to the government. Then we wouldn’t have to worry about that.
Besides you shouldn’t profit from giving people their human rights.
At this point, I believe that part of the game, for some of the players, is to use the Kommie Kough Krisis to render most of the heatlh care system insolvent so it can be nationalized.
My cynical side sees this as a win win for the statists. First, nationalize the health industry. Second, lay out the framework for going full on fascist/Socialist in various industries using the “climate emergency” as the nose under the tent.
Karens is officially a slur and no longer acceptable. I call upon TPTB to ban this man.
I don’t believe that is a bannable offense.
well you are not even a proper libertarian.
I’m not a libertarian at all.
…and my friend, too…
Okay, now I’m even more pissed off than I was before.
The paragraph (about 5th one down) that begins with the sentence “We have societal/cultural/even human…” has an “either” in the second line that doesn’t belong there. I missed it in the editing process. Sorry!
mistakes like this is why you will never be attorney general
Mistakes I made in college – and from which there are pictures – are why I will never hold any public office.
can you edit yourself and any other dudes out of the pictures, leave the hot naked college girls in, and post a link?
What about the horse?
a horse adds excitement to the photo
A sense of speed?
It was a pony, damn it!
In the picture I am thinking of, there are two lovely (clothed) female college coeds drinking beer. There are also two sweating, naked, young men talking to the coeds. The two young men are so blotto that they don’t seem to realize that they are in their birthday suits. There are also other college kids milling around pointing and laughing, or covering their faces. I am not one of the attractive girls in that picture.
Hasn’t stopped VA Gov….
Ba-zinga! Nice one, leon
Not implying you were in blackface or a clanhood. Just saying it doesn’t seem to hurt. You would just have to abandon your principles, in order to get the coverage provided by MediaInsurance “BlueShield” premium package.
Second, I offer this thought on my experience in trying to convince smart people of anything: you have to meet smart people “where they are” and that frequently includes distracting them with lots of smart-people trinkets, like law review articles from Princeton, and economics articles from Brown, and quotes from jurists named “Learned Hand.” It’s kinda like giving your kid the car keys to distract them from their hunger. ?
Do you think you can flatter me into not being angry!
Cause i want to know who told you i could.
I heard it from Zardoz.
Ozzy…you dont have to convince smart people. Just lay out the facts. I could give a gnats fart what Princeton or Brown has to say about anything. People who subscribe to the fallacy of Top.Men….well…..
Mind you I am not claiming to be smart, but I have no problem calling things as I see them.
However, sexual contact also involves questions of disclosure – anal does not cause pregnancy is still true
Let’s slide back and to the right for a moment because the decision to engage in behavior that we expect adults to at least have some ideas about, such as sex, also requires intimate contact that doesn’t raise the same concerns of transmission that COVID19 does – that is the point of glory holes, no covid that way.
So, let us suppose instead for a moment that I know I have been in contact with someone, like my daughter the nursing tech, who was in contact with someone else (a patient) who might have COVID19? What are my legal “duties,” societal obligations, vis a vis the rest of the world – this is a bit distant to something like actually being diagnosed.
such as controlling 2500-3500 lb. vehicles hurtling through space at speeds of 80 mph – no one needs a truck. a smart car should be enough.
that our driving in my truck together to get a coffee table – no one needs a coffee table.
The trees will still turn CO2 and sunlight into oxygen and food, the skies will cloud and rain, and the sun will shine again. – and globa warming will get us all…
Now I commented on random pieces to show I read the whole damn thing. Bud damn this needs some titty pictures to break the monotony between paragraphs.
Now to the point, it is thoroughly ignoring the legally established FYTW clause of modern government. But in the end the overall risk is unknown, the overall cost of doing and not doing is unknown, so it is hard to do an analysis. Overall most people are inclined to err on the side of restricting liberty, which is the opposite side libertarians prefer
that is the point of glory holes, no covid that way.
Some people use their hands and ruin it for the rest of us.
Fantastic series, as usual, Ozymandias. The probability aspect is particularly appealing.
Thanks, RA. Hand’s formulation is quite famous – as it should be. It was the first thing I thought of when people started discussing the NAP and COVID.
Agreed. Thanks for these two pieces. They help illuminate some thoughts I’ve had about this whole mess.
Any idea when this horrible CoronaFont is going to go away?
It makes glib.com virtually unreadable for me.
for me it comes and goes the last few days. But today it was always like this
Same here. I refreshed a few times today and that seem to get it back the normal look.
Maybe SP is angry with us and wants us all to get headaches?
Yeah, for some reason it really bothers my eyes. Mine has been on and off the last couple of days, but today it appears more… committed.
I swear I’ve heard this from Someone…
Great Write up Ozy!
You’ve gotten a good dose of this in person, Yusef; you deserve a medal, but all I had was some weed to share. Love ya, buddy. Hang in there – we’re gonna come out the other side of this better for it, as crazy as that sounds. The strong will always be fine; it will be our job to lift up those who can’t find the way themselves.
Didn’t work for me.
Hmmm, that can be interpreted a number of ways.
Should I just link to some boob pics in that essay instead?
It would make it more understandable for me.
The reader’s digest version: all of the sturm and drang over this disease is horseshit. It’s impossible to “quarantine” this thing away. The most vulnerable will die in some number, probably not much worse than a bad year of flu or car accidents.
Yes, but practical and moral issues aside, is a quarantine legally sound?
I have my own feelings on civic duty (in other words, moral obligations) concerning the spread of infection, but as with most things, I separate that from the legal aspects of it.
Of course, this isn’t a quarantine. Quarantines confine sick people. The emergency orders are confining people who aren’t sick. Kind of the opposite of a quarantine, really.
Naturally, the debasement of the English language has continued apace to obscure even the most salient issues of the day.
Once this thing got loose and we didn’t tightly lock the borders, it was inevitable. Yet that’s what they keep trying to do despite the economic devastation it’s causing.
I don’t think so, but I’ve been told by someone on facebook that the CDC has totally said it has the authority to lock down the country under the commerce clause. Evidently the Commerce Clause can also cancel a bunch of the Bill of Rights, too, including swaths of the 1st, 4th, 5th, 7th, and 8th Amendments (everyone already knows the 9th and 10th are bullshit, so now worries about them).
the CDC has totally said it has the authority to lock down the country under the commerce clause
As I said earlier, the Constitution is dead, and any further use of it will be purely pretextual.
This is what is infuriating. When it come to it the Federal Government always seems to decide that it is the one that has the power and your rights are subject to whatever power they try to tie to the Commerce Clause.
If FedGov can lock down the country, can it also open it back up?
Could the federal government order the states to allow hospitals to start doing “non-essential” procedures again? Should it?
Most of the oppression seems to be coming at the state level. From my perspective, the Feds have little to no authority in this situation as they do not have most of the police powers.
That’s one thing Trump seems to have some recognition of, that a nationally enforced lockdown is off the table.
Could the federal government order the states to allow hospitals to start doing “non-essential” procedures again?
Sure. Why not? The Constitution is a dead letter, so I see no reason why the feds can’t order the states to do whatever they want.
the Feds have little to no authority in this situation as they do not have most of the police powers
Only if you assume that Constitutional restrictions on the federal government mean anything. I’m not seeing it. Why would the lack of police powers in a stone dead document mean anything?
I sure hope that in hindsight a lot of people see how crazy this is. The CDC is just plain worthless and the FDA is deadly. I would have thought those 2 orgs would have been desperately searching for treatment options, cures, and preventatives – nope. The FDA actively discouraged medical innovation during an epidemic.
Nothing new in that though, right? Haven’t the lefties been using the commerce clause as a catchall excuse for violating the Constitution for decades now?
US President Donald J. Trump addressed this yesterday. 5 US states do not have lockdown. 3 more states only have it in parts of the state. Trump claims that the decision is the governors: not Trump, CDC, etc.
That. That might work. Maybe a slideshow with boobs holding a paragraph at a time.
From now on I definitely need to do collaborative pieces with Q.
Makes note to proceed with caution when clicking links in Ozymandias’s next piece…
I gotta set aside some time for reading this, and the 72 other posts that glibs seems to have sprouted since I last had time to really sit and read it.
In the meantime: “My rules are for the stupid little people, not Special People like ME.”
That link was from this morning’s am links, I believe, but yep – rules for the little people.
Damn its so maddening that they do this and aren’t chased out of town, or have shit thrown at them, or are chased into hiding.
Did she ask for the “balding middle-aged man” cut?
No, she asked for that at her tailor.
I could read the whole thing, but why take the risk?
Niiiice. I have laid mine eyes on that which thou hast done.
To laugh is to risk appearing a fool,
To weep is to risk appearing sentimental
To reach out to another is to risk involvement,
To expose feelings is to risk exposing your true self
To place your ideas and dreams before a crowd is to risk their loss
To love is to risk not being loved in return,
To hope is to risk despair
To live is to risk dying,
To try is to risk failure
But risks must be taken
Because the greatest hazard in life is to risk nothing.
The person who risks nothing, does nothing, has nothing, is nothing.
He may avoid sorrow.
But he cannot learn, feel, change, grow, or live.
Chained by his servitude he is a slave who has forfeited all freedom
Only a person who risks is truly free.
The pessimist complains about the wind;
The optimist expects it to change;
And the realist adjusts the sails.
– Attributed to William Arthur Ward.
A more recent version of that thought
Let’s hope Our Masters don’t fuck this up, too.
The fact that is being overseen by a White House “czar” does not fill me with optimism.
The headline merely confirms that journalists are idiots. Antibody testing won’t break the pandemic, you brain damaged moron.
The headline merely confirms that journalists are idiots
That’s a given. But if that misunderstanding can be used as an excuse for getting people back to work and getting things open again, I’m all for it.
I hope it helps break the lockdowns.
I wonder when any of those TOP MEN in govt is going to explain how it is that CA has less than 400 total deaths from this MASSIVELY DEADLIEST THING EVAH!!!! The state that daily was taking in thousands of Chinese nationals and Americans traveling back and forth to/from China for months before we knew about this, including me. I traveled to and from Shanghai in November 2019, in a completely packed flight, just like every other time. But somehow, Californians must have superhuman immune systems, while NYers are just weak.
…Or maybe, ya know, it turns out that CA has already been through it and it wasn’t even big enough to be noticed during flu season.
I want 350MM antibody tests. I want to know how many of us have already had this.
Why should I have to get tested on government orders? I’m only allowed my rights if government declares me “not untermensch?”
Look, those spring breakers went to Mexico, got the virus, and they’re all dead now. I assume they are, anyway. Haven’t really heard much about how they’re doing. Weird.
Because social distancing is working.
Thing I’ve been told repeatedly.
“…Or maybe, ya know, it turns out that CA has already been through it and it wasn’t even big enough to be noticed during flu season.”
EXACTLY! There’s compelling evidence the commie cough got to the US as early as November 2019, which means we may very well be past the peak infection point for the nation as a whole.
In yesterday’s press conference one nitwit (read: journalist) asked why Trump was following Moobs’ call for a Supply Chain Czar. I never saw Trump more pissed off.
totally not a police state
Thing is, anybody who’s paid attention to the policing in black neighborhoods is not surprised by any of this.
Fuck you, copsuckers. “Heroes in blue.” “Thin blue line.” “…safety of the officers.” Fuck you.
Damn Mo, tell us how you really feel.
I agree 100%
They put caution tape around a park bench in our neighborhood. It is, literally, just a park bench in an open space where people occasionally walk through with their dogs. Just a single bench. It looks so fucking ridiculous I was going to tear it down last night, but I couldn’t be bothered. It’s not like this bench was some hangout for homeless people, or… anyone. It’s just a single fucking bench in an otherwise empty space, but now it has to be cordoned off lest the proles get any ideas of illegal congregating. Fuck me this is just laughably stupid.
This whole thing has given cover to the cowards to let their cowardice flag fly. It used to be as a society that we lauded the brave, now we have people cheering for who can be the bigger fucking coward. It’s like Anti-America.
Who is the Anti-Christ?
“the land of the
freesheep and the home of the braveslaves.”
This is why I usually try to be in the bathroom at sporting events when the anthem is played if I make the mistake of showing up too soon.
The local parks here are open, but have shut down certain parts. One of the things that was “shut down” is a fitness trail. The trail is still open, but the stations where you’re supposed to exercise have been closed. So there’s a big closed sign and yellow warning tape around the chin up/pull up bars. They’ve even put a closed sign up on the stations for things like jumping jacks, knee lifts, and lunges. Where there’s no equipment. Where there’s nothing to touch…
Quarantine theater, have to be seen doing something.
Even though we’re not really quarantined and it does absolutely nothing.
As somebody else noted, this makes the idea that cops won’t start kicking down doors and confiscating guns when the order comes down pretty naive.
See: Boston bomber.
I was living in a ‘burb of Boston when that happened and I watched it on the news and I was tripping – hard. I couldn’t believe the police were just ordering entire neighborhoods into their homes. That was so fucked and no one said anything about it at the time. I remember being quite… alarmed by both the police actions and the people’s response. Here we are.
Don’t you dare disparage those brave people!
Yeah, my daughters were all in high school, even knew a couple of folks at the Marathon, including some who were injured, so they just lap that shit up. I cringed whenever I heard that, still do. Just fucking embarrassing what pussies we are. I really wish I could share with people what giant pussies they really are, but no one wants to hear that.
Compare that to 1966 Texas, when ordinary citizens took up arms to go after Charles Whitman in the UT library tower.
Or, hell, 1876 Minnesota, when the townsmen of Northfield shot the James Gang to pieces, killing two of the bandits and wounding the rest of them.
They rode again, though.
Eventually, though, they just tturned their pretty heads and walked away
Since you mentioned The Bomber.
*inspired by Tundra’s link
Sonsabitches need to be fired for this.
They won’t be, of course.
And at some point, they will drop the pretense and take the opportunity to steal your shit. Then they will just harass you for the SOLE PURPOSE of stealing your shit.
This is how it went, according to me and my tinfoil hat:
1. Kung Flu = bioweapon
2. escaped by accident … oops
3. world freaked out
4. took a while (longer than usual) for Top. Men. to figure out how to turn it to their advantage
5. have no idea what they have unleashed in their quest for power but they’re gonna die soon anyway so it doesn’t matter
6. taking a while for it to unfold
7. rednecks cannot, in fact, be counted on during a zombie apocalypse
I would count step 1 as a maybe – I think it highly likely this escaped from a lab, but have no idea if it was from a bioweapons program or a research program. Not even really necessary for the rest of it.
“…I think it highly likely this escaped from a lab,…” That jibes with what I’ve read, and that excellent Jim Geraghty Twitter thread on that very possibility.
The rednecks will leave their stashes of guns behind when they die.
Well here’s a bit of good news. I needed some.
Rand Paul recovers from coronavirus, tests negative
I haz a confuse. Does this mean that he had it? Or that it was a false positive before? That rather salient fact is completely missing from the article.
Presumably, this means he has no live virus in his system. When the antibody tests become available, he should test positive for antibodies.
I read it the same way.
Okay, gotcha. Thank you.
My guess is that I probably do as well. Ditto for at least two of my kids.
Got into an argument with my Mom over this.
She is 70, so she’s scared and when I told her around here, people are acting normal for the most part she said “bunch of dumbasses.”
I tried going through it logically, but she was having none of it.
It just kept circling back to the people who died have families and how big the infected numbers are growing.
Eventually we changed the subject, but I remain flabbergasted at people’s attitude about the top down mandated lockdown.
Really enjoyed the article Ozy.
Thanks, ron. My wife, who is a brilliant woman, originally started going down the path of freaking out, but eventually I won her over. Now she sees it for the bullshit it is, but I have to say, for a few days, she was falling under the spell. The SEALs have a saying that “calm is contagious” – what we’re watching is the opposite of that playing out. The Media completely created this entire shitstorm and I will forever lay it at their feet.
I’ve had to talk my wife down a few times too. One sister is a RN on in a pulmonary section is freaked (maybe rightly so) that she might lose a lot of patients. Her other sister watches too much CNN.
I’ve found a direct correlation between a person’s fear levels and amount of TV media consumed, especially of the major networks. They really are the enemy of the people. See? They did it again. Proved that Orange Nincompoop correct.
My personal belief is that this is largely media driven, and media hysteria is largely driven by a)Orange Man Bad and b)the fact that the media is so overwhelmingly NYC-centric. Being based in the one place in the country where the sickness is a legitimately widespread public health menace (while still falling way short of the doomsday predictions) undoubtedly colors their perspective, and not in a good way.
And c) fear, panic, and hysteria sell. They draw viewers, and it’s the news business.
The media’s business model isn’t “tell the truth”. Its “draw eyeballs to sell ads”. They tell the truth only by accident, or to the extent they have to in order to draw eyeballs.
In order to sell ads.
I had to walk from my office to my living room and shut off the TV last week. My wife was going down the freak out route. I told her to turn that shit off, get off her phone, and go out on the deck and have some wine. Staying calm and collected when other people start freaking out is hugely important to get them thinking straight.
Maybe that’s my Mom’s problem.
She couldn’t believe that I didn’t watch the press conferences.
I told her “I haven’t watched a politian’s press conference my whole life, (I am approximately 1 1/2 Evans old) Why would I start now?”
Also, she LOVES Dr. Fauci.
My life and personal stress levels have both improved remarkably when I stopped watching the legacy media for news and opinion, and started curating my own sources. Hell, even when folks on Glibs are just spitballin’, they’re still better than 99% of what I could’ve gotten from the MSM.
“Hell, even when folks on Glibs are just spitballin’, they’re still better than 99% of what I could’ve gotten from the MSM.”
I haven’t watched legacy media in nearly a decade.
I can understand being nervous about it, your sister being nervous makes perfect sense.
My Mom being scared makes some sense, she is obese and not healthy, but she lives on a farm in the middle of the woods and she gets her groceries from WalMart curbside delivery and Amazon. She is in a good position to ride this out.
Why she thinks it’s best to control everyone else is what I can’t wrap my head around.
“I am in control of my life and it’s working out pretty well. Those people over there aren’t doing a good job with their lives. If I were in charge I could fix that for them. Therefore, I should be in charge.”
My sister, who’s plenty smart herself, was edging towards hysteria a couple of weeks ago but she’s finally starting to question things now that the death toll in VA is still only at 63 – and almost half of those, 28, were residents of a single nursing home.
There is a lot of lunacy out there. I keep reading blue check types droning on about “this is the new normal”, some going so far as to say that things will never completely revert to normal life as we knew it only a month ago. These people claim that everyone will be required to wear masks whenever they leave the house in perpetuity, that businesses will universally start checking people’s temperatures before they are allowed into the building, that most people will stop attending sporting events, concerts, movies, etc permanently out of fear of viruses. It all makes me feel like Mugatu in Zoolander: I feel like I’m taking crazy pills!
death toll in VA is still only at 63 – and almost half of those, 28, were residents of a single nursing home.
And the overwhelming majority of all are people who are elderly and/or have other illnesses/issues that make them susceptible. The average young/middle and otherwise healthy person has very little to worry about.
My wife has gone the other way. She thought the early cancellation, such as the basketball tourney and etc, were an overreaction, but now she is more scared the other way.
I thought some of the delays/cancellations were good precautions, and think the shut downs and stay at home orders are stupid. So am just the opposite.
The death of one is a tragedy. The death of a million is a statistic. Or something like that.
People don’t care that 7500 people die everyday in this country for a variety of reasons. Those people aren’t on the news.
But the three people in our county that died, well the local media is shitting over it. And anyone who doesn’t relate to those three deaths is a monster.
This is a case study in how media still controls the agenda and the narrative.
My wife called this very early on (within the first few days of gubernatorial executive orders). This is a spirit of fear that is consuming the country / world, not a virus.
Alberta has 4.4 million people.
We’ve recorded a grand total of 1,348 cases of coronavirus, ever.
90 hospitalizations ever for the coronavirus.
31 ICU ever.
24 deaths attributed to the virus.
When I drive around Edmonton (1.2 million people), the place looks largely like a ghost town.
Politicians got some ‘splainin’ to do.
The response to WuFlu was, and still is, driven by fear. It’s very easy to control people when they fear for their lives. The early thought was that this was a highly contagious disease with a high mortality rate. Even though we’ve learned a lot more, the official response is still reacting to that early assessment. The news media is stoking fears because it a) makes a Trump look bad and b) gets more views and c) makes them feel important just like any other disaster.
I’ve seen some WW2 documentaries lately and it strikes me how the leaders back then were trying so hard to keep people calm and optimistic. This in the face of sometimes daily bombings.
Because they really did need people to stay calm and collected in that situation.
We are LARPing right now. That could change when the economy collapses because of these measures taken by governors.
Too much so. I always wondered “Who the fuck would keep living in Dresden, Berlin, etc… after it was bombed a few times?” That must have been some kind of persuasion and societal pressure to keep people there absorbing that kind of violence.
Moobs is a moron, example n+1
Just. Awesome. (and nice probably hot mommy behind him)
The Trump meme on the thread was pretty good.
Though it loses a lot of effectiveness by being in response to a non-shoop.
He’s just a mouth breather thats all
So, is storing that many vehicles in a grassy field negligent?
Torching cars they can no longer rent?
I swear, it’s just a total coincidence that these cars that there is no longer any demand for were incinerated!
Better than storing them on a grassy knoll, amirite?!
Hope the insurance was paid up…
I’m sure it was.
For me, this whole clusterfuck has been a mental exercise.
I have competing thoughts on what I consider a moral duty to slow the infection, a moral duty to assert my rights, and the practical considerations of what will happen in this environment if the government encounters resistance.
Specifically, using the Florida pastor as an example:
1) I support his right and his parishioners’ right to gather.
2) I think it’s a bad idea and morally suspect for them to do so as they increase the risk of infecting others. If there were no risk to others outside of the church, then it’s a non-issue.
3) I think poking the government in the current environment will only yield further restrictions on them and everyone else and in doing so, set a new precedent. I just don’t see where there is anything to be gained right now and each step taken towards authoritarianism is unlikely to be stepped back later.
Number one and number three are in direct conflict. Number two is largely irrelevant.
Ultimately the state has one tool, force. Every time they use it successfully, it gets easier for them to use the next time.
Somebody else weigh in on this deontological/utilitarian predicament.
And that tool is ultimately deadly force. The wife thinks I’m a lunatic nut job if I say it. No ones getting killed here, unlike India. Oh really? What happens if you resist the police attempting to arrest you? Or they feel you aren’t complying fast enough? Or they get scared and think you’re a threat? Or put their coronafinger on the bang switch negligently?
Every single order from the Almighty State ends with “Submit, or die.” Just because they don’t say it out loud, doesn’t mean its not true.
Something something the tree of liberty something something patriots and tyrants.
Is life so dear or peace so sweet…?
Something something the spirit of resistance…
Etc. Etc. The trouble is that we are all
However, dying for your cause in this environment might actually be counterproductive as the soccer moms along with most of everybody else would be cheering it on.
With the above references made and holding in principle, the literal interpretation would be an absolute last resort. What I would like to see is mass civil disobedience. But you have to have a “live free or die” defiant attitude in order to achieve that. Unfortunately that is something that has largely been lost.
Even the colonists needed Thomas Paine to fire them up for revolution.
Public opinion can swing on a dime these days. I don’t think the American people are ALL sheep. What’s needed is something to spark sufficient outrage to overcome our collective inertia. I’m not sure what, or even if something, could do that, but I think the possibility exists.
Print all the mega lottery tickets with the same number. Have that be the winning ticket. Everyone with a ticket would go on a Loot and Shoot spree. Omelets and eggs. Couldn’t make things any worse.
Sounds crazy but we have to do something. Might just work
Great article, OZY, my sentiments exactly.
Public opinion can swing on a dime these days.
I have a really hard time imagining public opinion swinging in an anti-government direction.
I’d love to be wrong, but between the huge numbers of pubsecs, the rabidly pro-government media (partisan and pro-government can go hand in hand), and generations of pro-government indoctrination in government schools, I just don’t see it happening.
I can’t argue with you, RC. Just the sheer numbers (even as a percentage) of people on the govt dole militates against there being some popular uprising.
“Show me where a man gets his cornpone and I’ll tell you his ‘pinions.”
I hadn’t even thought of the welfare recipients.
Remember, the closest thing we have had to a grass roots libertarian movement, the Tea Party, had as its number one demand “Hands off my Medicare”.
In fairness, their thing was “Taxed Enough Already” not trying to repeal current levels of taxation and spending. IIRC
Would be nice to have some sort of protest group now, but the numbers aren’t there.
VCDL tried in Richmond with Lobby Day and got nothing out of it.
“Even the colonists needed Thomas Paine to fire them up for revolution.”
This is why I think it behooves many of us to spread this message logically, with reason, thought, and LOUD. People have to hear a counter to all the hysterics.
For my own part, and this is not meant as a boast, I know people who will respect my opinion, and know I’m not a conspiracy nut, or “science denier.”
So, when I post stuff o FB, and occasionally tweet a quick thought with a link to a solidly argued counter example from someone reputable, it helps. Every little bit helps.
Putting pressure on local officials may help as well (response will of course vary greatly – I doubt I’ll have much impact here in the LA area of southern CA).
I think poking the government in the current environment will only yield further restrictions on them and everyone else and in doing so, set a new precedent.
isolated “civil disobedience” during a panic like this will, indeed, have that result. What would be more successful would be widespread civil disobedience, which would need to be predicated on a culture that we no longer have.
The power grab has succeeded because it occurred in a country that wanted it to succeed.
Pretty much my position. We lost a while ago. This is the result.
Any revolution will be the “Army of Ones” Matt Bracken described – people hitting back from long range.
The saddest truth spoken. There are pockets of resistance but as you noted it needed to be on a whole.
Our neighbors want this
“a moral duty to slow the infection,”
You have no moral duty to slow the infection if you are asymptomatic. If you really cared, you’d get tested so you would know instead of just making assumptions based on ignorance. But the people shoving “moral duty” in your face won’t let you get tested if you’re asymptomatic.
Once there is a vaccine, I could understand a moral duty. But I’m willing to bet that when this shit is over, the anti-vaxxers will be tolerated by government just as they were before.
Everyone for Coronavirus certified barrier devices on their nutsacks? Good. Proceed.
Table three has the mortality by state, with NYC broken out. Even NYC is running below 10% of total deaths for the period. Note, covid deaths aren’t level during the period, selection timeframe, etc etc.
The data must be old. The numbers of deaths are way too low for the US and Massachusetts.
There’s definitely a lag in the reporting. Still the percentage of expected deaths is down overall, except for NYC. And so far, even garden variety pneumonia has been killing far more for the period.
What the fuck is that “deaths from all causes” drop from 3/21 onward? Do they not have the data from that time? Or does CV grant it’s survivors immunity to everything?
I suspected that this is where we would end up, but I definitely enjoyed the trip.
The most important question is – of course – how did the coffee table look in her house?
It’s a great coffee table. Like Lebowski’s rug, it really “ties the room together.”
Hey Ozy, great article as per your usual.
The comment regarding “watching the suicide of a civilization” was mine, tyvm 😉
Here’s a thought for a future article — what is, and/or what should be the overlap between law and ethics/morality? We generally suppose that the laws are, or should be [yeah, I know, FYTW clause] ethical/moral. I think we who are here would also agree that not every moral/ethical precept should be a matter of law [don’t we?].
Should the law be able to force immoral action? Where are the dividing lines between law and ethics/morality? Is a moral/ethical objection grounds for disobeying a law *from the perspective of law*? Ought such objections be considered, by law, partially or totally mitigating factors? How are the dividing lines between law and ethics/morality to be drawn?
Sorry about the misattribution, Shirley!
As regards your question/homework assignment, I have some variants on this topic as they relate to a couple of different areas, but nothing that is directly “there.” The anthrax vaccine sent me headlong into the “you must obey all orders, and orders are presumed lawful, but you must disobey illegal order or be prosecuted for it,” so I’ve been DEEP down that rabbit hole. It’s a big topic (obviously) and it holds some appeal, so maybe I will. I’ll ruminate on it and possibly add it to “to be written” list for Glibs.
Yeah, between that series and other things you’ve written here, in comments as much as articles, I was pretty sure you had thought about the issues.
I have in hand a work on the philosophical foundations of civil law; I’ll try to have that read in time for your maybe someday article. This will help up my motivation 😉
Can you give me the name/info on it? I might like to peruse it myself.
It’s Adolf Reinach, The Apriori Foundations of Civil Law.
It appeared in English translation in a journal, Aletheia: An International Journal of Philosophy, volume III, Philosophy of Law, as the main article in 1983.
Originally published in German in 1913.
A copy, marked up with Steven Kinsella’s notes, is linked here.
Shut down has huge cost. Needs huge benefit to ethically/morally justify it.
Sweden using distance learning inste4ad of classrooms for secondary and higher but kept classroom for primary. Otherwise not shut down. Did social distancing, masks, gloves, wash hands more, and so on.
Sweden is the control for do the other stuff except shut down versus everything with shut down.
591 deaths due to Wuhan Flu as of sometime today First known case 24 January. Estimated population 10 100 000 or 10 200 000 to the nearest 50 000 depending on methodology. Population density of #1 city about 4 800 per square kilometer: as high or higher than a lot of First World major cities.
I agree DNT, except that I thought the same thing about Portugal’s decriminalization of drugs… almost 20 years ago. Nothing has changed here, notwithstanding the plainly obvious better outcomes of Portugal’s approach. I suspect Sweden will now get buried because while they have the “right kind of socialism” for our Media, they definitely do NOT have the “right kind of pandemic power grab.”
How is everyone else silent about Sweden reason to join them? People talk about shut down. What if Glibs tell them about Sweden?
I agree. See my comment above on RS’#21 about something being needed to spark the people.
So, in search of Common Sense?
“Oh, Tom, that’s all you ever talk about. Get a life, man”
/Tom’s best friend
I can’t wait to shake your hand, 4×20; I’ve got Honey Harvest on the calendar.
Let us know if you find it or author thereof.
The reference to car insurance upthread reminded me that I’d gotten a notice from my insurance carrier that they were going to sent a partial rebate of premiums for march/april because of lowered liability risk, etc. It struck me as completely out of character for the company. So I started wondering.
I know that within the Obamacare regs there was a maximum profit to expense ratio baked into the regs for the health insurance folks. So I’m wondering if there’s some similar limit on other insurance products, and my carrier is trying to spin a mandated rebate as corporate goodwill.
Don’t know why, but we got the same notice. You have AmFam?
I saw the Allstate CEO talking about this on Squawk this morning – they claim many aren’t driving and liability is reduced so they are issuing a refund. Other companies are following suit – AKA the “fire and motion” strategy.
Did he say he was raising home insurance rates because liability is up in the next segment?
Wouldn’t it be great if life insurance companies sent out rebates because dying was a thing of the past, proven by Social Distancing?
Bernie Sanders Struggling To Stay Six Feet Away From Americans’ Wallets
Liberal Treated With Hydroxychloroquine Hopes He Still Dies Of COVID-19 To Prove Trump Is Stupid
I feel less guilty now that I’m a subscriber. I think I’m going to apply for a job there. I wonder what the pay and benefits are?
I’ll need to have Derpy give me some help in sharpening my satire skills.
Holy Shit, those were funny, brought a tear to my eye.
Mr. Scum, apropos of nothing: your avatar cheers me up infinitely.
My people, we are without bungholes.
OT- I open carry a pistol, either a 5″ stainless 1911 or a 4.5″ Baby Eagle, and my wife is concerned that if masks are mandated (pisses me off thinking about it) that I shouldn’t OC because I would look too scary.
I told her I would wear a bandanna and she thought that would be worse.
What does this bunch of miscreants think?
Add spurs. The tink-tink will draw all the attention.
great minds and all that…
Gotta go with the blue or red bandana and the open carry – I like the 1911 ‘cuz I’m OG like that. Must also add a badass cowboy hat, regardless of where you live, to complete the outfit. Boots and spurs optional.
I guess if I went for the bandanna a cowboy hat would be a no-brainer.
I do own a pair of “dress” cowboy boots, but no spurs.
A big hog-leg of a revolver and gun-belt with extra rounds.
Nah – balaclava is the way to go. Do some IRA LARPing
I think if you’re already able to open carry in your community without negative feedback, I don’t see why it would change much.
Now if you did it in my neighborhood, it would be a different story.
You’re in Newport news?
I have OC’d there many times with no issue, not sure your particular neighborhood, though.
City of Williamsburg
You’d be fine in York or greater James CIty, but not in WIlliam and Maryville
Been to restaurants there a few times with no problems.
A pancake and waffle place and a Blues and BBQ place.
Good to hear. I’ve never seen anyone open carry inside the city.
Which is funny when you consider it’s supposed to be “colonial” Williamsburg.
I don’t recall any particular instance of OC in Tidewater but I did occasionally see people doing it in Richmond when I lived in the city.
If it were accurate, there would be bars and whores all along Duke of Gloucester Street.
Instead, we get five places serving Brunswick stew.
I never went walking around up there, but everywhere I have OC’d 90-95% of the people don’t even notice.
What are local law enforcement doing? Are they wearing masks yet? If so, OC away. Maybe not dress like a gang banger teenager, but most miscreants aren’t wearing OC holsters either.
could you get a bluetooth speaker to play the Good, Bad, and the Ugly music on loop?
You win for the best worst advice.
I would be concerned about getting shot on sight by a LEO if open carrying in a mask. No warning, no hands up, no chance to do anything but take lead in your chest or more likely in your back.
Seeing the name Learned Hand in these articles has reminded me of the name of a friend’s softball team when he was in law school – Learned Glove, which I thought was rather clever.
That gave me a chuckle, in that special nerd way. ?
I’m gonna go all actor here and do a “when I was preparing for this role”.
One of my books has a dead husband who has a Terrible Secret Life. Okay, it wasn’t the usual women’s fiction Husband With a Terrible Secret Life trope. The wife (heroine of the book) was in on it. Basically, dead husband was working on the dark web to undermine government spying software because reasons. Dead Husband With a Terrible Secret Life worked in solitude (with the wife), knowing/hoping there were others out there doing the same thing. It is revealed toward the end of the book that the software he created (which the wife thought died with him) had been forked many times over and was still working, still doing the job Dead Husband set it to doing.
And I realized while I was writing that that it was stupid to fight out in the open. Well, I realized that when I was researching for my pirate novel and found out pirates/privateers often disguised themselves (to the point of working for the enemy) so as to escape detection. The hero of the Dead Husband With Terrible Secret Life book (dead dude’s dad) (yes FIL and DIL, get over it) (who is a lawyer and a former boxer) would rather fight out in the open because anything less is (to him) cowardly. He understands deceit to achieve a goal, but he doesn’t understand doing it from the shadows and never outing oneself.
Like my parents having me to avoid the draft, which I always thought was cowardly, I always thought the “good” and “right” and “honorable” thing to do was to fight and die out in the open.
Except…that’s not how wars are won. Spycraft may be dishonorable or it may not be, but it gets the job done and really, all you want is to win.
I think resistance in every form matters. Eventually it has to coalesce into something public, given what we’re discussing, but among the colonials it certainly began with quiet, grumbling resistance.
Maybe the takeaway from all of this is that we have to do it all again: the suppression of Liberty, the simmering resentment that follows, the small acts of defiance, the eventual cause celebre (tea party or boston massacre) and then we get something akin to Freedom again.
Tear the tape off and go sit on that bench! FREEEEDDDDOM!
I laughed, Chips. Now I’m going to do something…. more creative when I take the dog out later tonight.
People used to love Westerns because there was always a stud or 2 who would just walk out to the middle of the street and fight no matter the odds. In real life, middle-class revolutions don’t become “open” conflicts until they reach a tipping point. The battles of Lexington and Concord didn’t start the revolution, just marked the transition from propaganda and secret organization to open warfare. The revolution itself had been underway for some time.
Many happy bluebirds singing on your windowsill.
OT: I am tired of many things at this point, but today’s annoyance are restaurateur’s whining that they deserve a special bailout, should have longer to pay back loans, paperwork for the government loans is too hard (“they don’t understand restaurants” – Tim Love), some can’t reopen because they aren’t able to pay suppliers, etc.
Really? The PPP paperwork was *very* simple.
I heard it was all of two pages.
Yeah, I filled those pages out. Then the bank said don’t submit those pages, go to this website and fill out the webform.
Two days later, “Yeah, about that, go to this other website and fill out this other webform, and here’s a list of a dozen different pieces of paperwork that we’re going to need.”
I don’t have a payroll to meet, so I didn’t look into applying.
It takes a lot of extra work when you have to make-up your P&L and determine how to determine which employees (whether they were legit on payroll or not) you want to show for the loan forgiveness.
Thing is, they didn’t shut down because they wanted to. They shut down because they were forced to. Everybody else is getting money; why shouldn’t they? They didn’t make stupid decisions. They were playing by the rules. They were told to shut down.
If everybody else is getting green paper, so should they. They weren’t doing anything wrong.
The forced shutdown in this context is a “taking” and should be compensated.
That’s a good way of describing it, yes.
I have something on that in next week’s article.
I’m objecting to the “we deserve extra-special treatment” BS – they are already receiving the same money as everyone else.
Paywalled, but the title is enough…
Yeah, the NYT doesn’t want the economy to survive this, so…. quit being productive, you assholes!
Why does anyone read that fucking rag anymore? Seriously. I can’t imagine paying for that shite every day.
Transport yourself back to your youth. You are with a girl and she’s taken off her bra. It’s your very first time being in the presence of a young woman in a sexual context. The anticipation and excitement are so thick you could cut them with a knife. Your heart’s pounding, your breath is quickening and your senses greedily drink in the scene.
That is where the NYT is right now. They can just FEEL their Commie wet dreams starting to come true. They see, for the very first time, an opportunity to turn all their fantasies into a reality. Their collective erection is practically busting through their pants. No time to think, just GO GO GO GO!
Well, /fans self/, I think you’ve captured the sentiment quite well, Q.
I’ll be in my bunk.
4/10. Good setup & promise but went downhill.
Still happens all these years later.
“I leave you with this: We’re going to be fine.”
I concur WRT the disease. I disagree WRT civil liberties violations.
We can’t put the toothpaste back in the tube. They know what they can get away with and under what circumstances. Don’t think for a second they won’t push it a little (or a lot) further at the first available opportunity.
So… We lobby organize a New Contenintal Congress, and declare independence from the Fed Gov!
More realistically, I think the Article V convention might be the only way out of this quandary. It’s still a long shot.
What will probably happen: we’ll return to some semblance of normality in a couple of months. The slow cultural decline will resume except this time it will be punctuated by “crises” and “emergencies” that will accelerate that decline by leaps. Then one day, we (or our descendants) will wake up and find that the Constitution no longer exists at all, we have a de facto monarchy/oligarchy and life will consist of everything not prohibited being mandatory.
Yeah, I had hope for a Constitutional Convention but given this appears to be driven by the state governors, I’m cancelling that notion.
I can only imagine what kind of crap would result from a modern constitutional convention. Bye-bye negative rights and hello
positive rightsspecial privileges*.
*more so than we already have in “law”.
Then one day, we (or our descendants) will wake up and find that the Constitution no longer exists at all
If by “one day”, you mean yesterday, I agree.
Yeah… Article V Convention would be interesting, and could be what precipitates a break up of the country, which would not be a bad thing IMO.
As a “the worse the better” exercise in accelerating the break up of the nation, I could see it.
I can’t see the current United States rewriting its charter into anything even worse than what we have. I’d rather have the current dead letter than some “positive rights” abomination, and that’s what we’d get.
I’m not so convinced. You would still need 2/3rs of the state legislatures to sign on after the convention.
“accelerating the break up of the nation”.
A Convention would either show that we are irreparably divided, or that we are so far gone a positive rights abomination would get approved.
Don’t forget the big winner under “positive rights”: the government. Would 2/3 of the state governments jump at the chance to be free from the dead letter if they could go forward under a charter that gave them the kind of unlimited power that a positive rights charter would provide?
I’d give that much better odds than a new charter that was anything like libertarian.
Hmmm. You’re probably right that a convention of states would be more likely to be more statist than libertarians, but i think it is much more likely that you could get a 2/3 of legislatures to agree to give themselves more power and take it away from the Fed Gov.
For example an amendment codifying the right to nullification and secession.
I agree 100%, Q, yet I still think we’re going to be fine. I’m no pollyanna, but for comparison’s sake, let’s consider that Nero used Christians as human torches. That may be an extreme example, but Christianity is still here 2k years later. As I note above, maybe this is what the US public needs in order to appreciate Liberty. I’m not certain, but I still know that we’ll be fine. This is terrible for Liberty, at the moment, but we’ll see what comes next. Maybe we all need to be the vanguard on opinion and start amplifying our own voices such that the Liberty signal cuts through the noise. I don’t know, but we’ve certainly got the intellectual horsepower here on Glibs to make the case for Liberty against statists of every stripe.
There is truth in that something had to give. The slow steady decline and destruction of the Founders’ vision had to have some kind of reckoning; maybe this is it. Maybe people will rise to the occasion and defend liberty, or maybe they’ll expose their bellies in surrender. I suppose time will tell.
I think we are finding out that 200+ years is the amount of time a government can be constrained by a piece of paper.
I know the government has grown continuously but we have to be getting close to the end.
Three presidents in a row have passed massive stimulus packages and we are a 0% interest.
What’s next to prop us up?
What’s next to prop us up?
Traditionally, failing regimes invade their neighbors. If I was Mexico or Canada, I’d be getting nervous.
So… ramp up the drug war, and use that as a cause to take Mexico under our protection?
If there is one thing history has taught us, its that any pretext will do for a casus belli. Drug war? Sure. Uncontrolled immigration from Latin America? Why not. Insufficiently gay/trans friendly? Good enough.
It all boils down to “they needed conquering” anyway.
I think Venezuela is next in line
Maybe we need to ensure a “Roman Peace”?
*we are at 0% interest.
Re Nero and Christianity: I made the observation the other day that the Black Plague ushered in the Renaissance. Then Jarflax pointed out that it was a net good overall and quite quick in terms of human evolution, but it was devastating for the people whose lives were immediately impacted. That’s where we are right now.
today’s annoyance are restaurateur’s whining that they deserve a special bailout, should have longer to pay back loans, paperwork for the government loans is too hard (“they don’t understand restaurants” – Tim Love), some can’t reopen because they aren’t able to pay suppliers, etc.
Maybe they should have offered a little resistance, when they still had a chance.
WHER MUH FREE MUNNY AT?
Shorter decision on the Anna C. case:
Why the everliving fuck does the US Government own flour?
Military Rations need foodstuffs. Flour is a staple of many. It is not beyond the legitimate function of the US Government to own flour.
See? If only you’d been on the Second Circuit! Think of all the cool precedent we’d have!
“Don’t be a pussy.”
“Fuck off, Slaver.”
“Taxation is theft.”
To roll the taxpayer in so they can find the wet spot?
Black is back, hurrah!
Gonna need to see your numbers on that. I can go to the grocery store right now and cough on any number of attractive young ladies. The number that I could convince to bump uglies with me is considerably less.
Another good article Oz.
OT: I got a text from my Kung Flu infected brother. His fever broke last night. Unlike all the scary reporting he said his experience was like a bad flu. He did lose 12 pounds since Friday, but says it probably was mostly water weight from sweating.
Parents still display no symptoms.
Recovering contrary The Narrative.
Good for the parents! Sounds like the sibling will be ok too. ?
Thank you, DE.
Glad to hear Bro is doing better. When my daughter had it, she was sick for two weeks. She said the depth of the fatigue was surprising (and she is a good bit fitter than I am). Of course, everyone’s bodies react differently, so it’s just a matter of gutting it out. Prayers for the ‘rents.
This is good news.
That can actually be really, really helpful.
For a while.
It works for the Government.
Some good news. Looks like UNCSA is going to cough up some money so number one son can go there for senior year of high school. The wife and I weren’t willing to commit to that level of expense going into next year.
Part of the deal is that he’ll be working an actual job to help cover the expenses, which is great.
Congratulations – well-done to your son!
That sounds like a good deal.
University of the Confederate States of America?
UNC School of the Arts
Ah – Congrats
Bro Dean’s deal with his daughters was that he would pay half their college, and they would have to come up with the other half – job, grants, loans, they’re adults, they can figure it out.
Seems to have worked pretty well.
Alright all, Glib’s Virtual Happy hours have been scheduled for Friday night at 19:00 Eastern as well as Saturday night at 20:00 Eastern. Feel free to share the links and information on other threads and Discord.
Yay! Thanks again for doing this!
Plan to restock my “wine cellar” tomorrow.
You didnt even drink the Mountain Dew you brought home, you said.
The Mountain Dew would mess me up more than the wine. : )
…and you missed me & my bottle of Oliver Winery Soft Red late Saturday night.
This is video as well as audio? (Wondering if hairbrushing is needed )
You can opt out of video of you so wish.
Very cool! My wife and I have one of our workouts Friday night, so I’ll try and make Saturday.
The COVid19 figures are improving, so does Gov Walz ease off the restrictions? Nope! He plans to double down. Economy is still moving I guess.
(That’s gov Walz of Minnesota)
They’ll tweak ’em so they’re not improving anymore.
I’ve been harping on GA’s reported deaths for a few days – the state’s department of public health had the death numbers peaking last Wednesday, and then trending down. They changed something radically in their data management yesterday to add 43.7% more deaths in one day. I’m going to watch for about another 24 hours before making my next call on it. But it very much looks like they tweaked the method to get the outcome they wanted, and won’t tell the “Public” anything about it.
“Lies, dammed lies…”
“damned”, even. . .
I mean, they are kind of piling up!
I see on the Facebook (so could be made up) that children are allegedly being removed from the houses of parents who are working the medical profession, for the sake of the child. Appears to be happening when a disgruntled ex spouse turns in a health worker.
Um, has nobody pointed out that today is National Beer Day? Get your priorities straight, people!
It’s also National Coffee Cake day.
So let’s all hang out and have an ale with the founding fathers, tell them how we took the best constitution that man had yet written, then heaved it overboard when a contagion reached our shores.
You know they’d be proud.
Geez, for real, how embarrassing to tell Franklin and Adams what we let go of.
/hangs head in shame
I’m sorry I let you down. But I’m trying to cut down during the week to get back on track with a shrinking waistline instead of expanding.
It only took three weeks to get my case of 9mm, but I got it.
/fires gun wildly into the air
Oh, wa- whoops.
/holsters and walks away
Real Men shoot .45!
Hey, at least it’s not 25 ACP
Trolls/blasphemers, such as myself, have a 1911 chambered in 9mm. Or I did, before the boating accident.
That seems wrong.
But it feels so right.
I want to say the Colt Commander was chambered in .380
but it was a dinky pistol to go with a dinky round
The other thing: when France, China, Israel, Germany, and Brasil, and Italy agree on something, it is definitely wrong
A 1911 chambered in .38 Super, on the other hand……
12 Gauge or go home.
That’s at the office. Mossberg Shockwave FTW
Real Men shoot .45!
Por que no los dos?
I have 1,000 rounds of each scheduled to arrive next week, maybe the week after.
“Real Men shoot .45!”
And .22, and .32, and .38, and .41, and .44, and .45….
Real men shoot.
It was a joke, I agree I even have one 9mm a Baby Eagle that saw duty as an Israeli Police Gun
Ugh. I keep getting called away so it is hard for me to engage.
As per the requests above I have about two minutes so I did a quick search
High beams are on!
She is definitely pointing in the right direction.
Suthen, I didn’t realize you were so perky.
You have no idea. I am 55 and I can still cut glass all day long.
Great read, thanks!
And by “the law,” I mean… STEVE SMITH!
I’m pissed and angry. I mean very pissed and angry. My business was shut down. I’m getting aid but that’s not the point. What if the government said no? What if they said ‘fuck you?’ And never mind the amounts given aren’t very good. I’m forced into take a government loan which makes my blood boil. My income has been slashed by 40% and if this goes on beyond May, I have to dip into that loan.
I find it amazing no one is rallying to protest.
Here’s how full of shit all of this is. Canadian Tire is doing booming business and gets to stay open. The little hardware shop (the mom and pop shops the left so loves to praise are suddenly acceptable collateral damage) meanwhile has to shut down. They have to do their bit. All CT needs to do is pay some lip service and force you to wash your hands when you go into the store to spend. Corporations and banks ain’t gonna get hit. Neither will doctors who are pushing this. For most this is just a paid vacation. For many it’s life altering.
Bull shit all this.
I don’t see why the government can’t say, ‘Hey, we’re projecting a peak in the next couple of weeks. If we see a fall off even in the slightest, we’re opening up in May and not cancelling fucken summer and life. All we ask is you continue to practice social distance, wash your hands and even wear masks. Now go work’.
Preventing people to earn a living is IMMORAL.
And if you’re someone who is getting full pay while working from home you don’t get to demand others sacrifice.